海岬型干散货海运市场周期性特征谱分析模型  

Spectral Analysis Model for Cyclical Characteristics of Capesize Dry Bulk Shipping Market

作　　者：陈继红[1,2,3] 曾鑫[1] 真虹 赵娅[1] 于航[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306 [2]上海国际航运研究中心,上海200082 [3]美国罗格斯大学土木与环境工程学院,皮斯卡塔韦nj088548018

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2016年第6期204-209,235,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51409157);国家社会科学基金项目(15BJY069);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(14YJC630008);上海市科委研究项目(15590501700);上海市教委科研创新项目(14YZ109);上海海事大学研究生创新基金资助项目(2016ycx003)~~

摘　　要：国际干散货海运市场源于国际经济贸易衍生需求,受世界经济贸易外部环境影响,是一个典型的周期性市场.海岬型干散货市场作为国际海运市场重要组成部分,研究其周期特征具有重要意义.运用傅里叶变换和谱分析理论,在检验序列平稳性基础上,建立海岬型海运市场周期特征谱分析模型,对其周期性波动进行理论研究和实证分析.海运市场周期性谱分析方法能够衡量市场指标时间序列中各周期因素相对重要程度,确定周期长度.分析时间序列周期特征,特别是确定不同频率的周期成分对序列变化影响时,谱分析是非常有效的数学工具.研究结果表明,海岬型干散货海运市场具有明显周期性特征,最显著的周期是1~1.5年时间,其次是5年左右的短周期,这种周期性规律可为海运企业船舶投资和市场经营提供决策依据.International dry bulk shipping market demand is the international economy and trade derivative,a typical cyclical market affected by the impact of eternal environment of world economy and trade.Capesize dry bulk cargo shipping market is the leading part of dry bulk shipping markets, so study on its market cycle is of great importance. Referencing to Fourier transform and spectral analysis theory based on the stability of the sequence test, the paper model the spectrum analysis of shipping market of Capsize dry bulk to deal with the periodicity of it empirically and theoretically. The spectral analysis of shipping market of Capesize dry bulk cycle fluctuation can compare with the importance of different wave length fluctuation and calculate the wave length of the its cycle fluctuation. In the analysis of implicit cycle characteristics of time series, especially when determining the impact of different frequency cycle components to the sequence variation, spectral analysis is a very effective mathematical analysis tools. The results show that the Capesize dry bulk shipping market has obvious periodicity. The most significant period sequence is one year to one and a half year, and the short period is about 5 years. The periodic feature can provide decision-making basis for the vessel investment and market operation of shipping enterprises.

关 键 词：水路运输 周期性波动 谱分析 海岬型船舶 海运市场 

分 类 号：U692.3[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]