基于MaxEnt模型预测细叶小羽藓在中国的潜在分布区  

Predication of potential distribution of Haplocladium microphyllum in China based on MaxEnt model

作　　者：毛俐慧[1,2] 李垚[1,2] 刘畅[1,2] 方炎明[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学南方现代林业协同创新中心,南京210037 [2]南京林业大学生物与环境学院,南京210037

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2017年第1期54-60,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目;江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目(CXZZ13_0527)资助

摘　　要：应用Max Ent模型、Arc GIS 10.0和DIVA-GIS 7.5软件,基于96个地理分布记录,预测了细叶小羽藓在末次盛冰期、当代和2070年的潜在分布区。Max Ent模型模拟当代潜在分布区准确度极高,受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)达0.94。当代细叶小羽藓的最适分布区在四川盆地和长江中下游平原。相较于当代的分布,末次盛冰期时该物种的适生区局限在35°N以南,而未来(2070年)的分布范围呈现西进北扩的趋势。Jackknife检验表明,影响细叶小羽藓分布的最主要环境因子(阈值)是年均温(-0.97~22.86℃)、年均降水量(445~2238 mm)和最干月降水量(1~93 mm)。Based on 96 distributional records of Haplocladium microphyllum in China,we predicted the potential distribution of this species in China in different periods,e. g. last glacial maximum（ LGM,21 ka BP）,at present and in 2070 by using Max Ent model,Arc GIS 10.0 and DIVA-GIS 7.5 software. The results showed that the accuracy of Max Ent model was pretty high for modeling present potential distribution regions,and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve（ AUC） reached 0.94. The ideal regions for the present distribution include Sichuan Basin and the middle-lower Yangtze Plain. Compared to the present distribution,the distribution of this species was smaller in LGM,and was restricted in the south of 35° N. On the other hand,the distribution region will be extended northward and westward in 2070. Jackknife test showed that the major factors（ threshold） contributing to the potential distribution were annual mean temperature（-0.97 to 22. 86 ℃）,annual precipitation（ 445- 2238 mm） and precipitation of the driest month（ 1-93 mm）.

关 键 词：适生区 气候变化 环境因子 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]