基于SPEI指数的辽宁省生长季干旱时空特征  

Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of growing season drought in Liaoning Province based on standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index

作　　者：张运福[1] 房一禾[2] 龚强[3] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象服务中心,沈阳110166 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [3]沈阳区域气候中心,沈阳110166

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2017年第1期190-197,共8页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201306034)资助

摘　　要：根据辽宁省50个气象站1961—2015年温度和降水资料,采用标准化降水蒸散指数(standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index,SPEI)、线性趋势分析、突变检验、经验正交函数分解等方法,研究了辽宁省生长季干旱的时空分布特征。结果表明:近55年来,辽宁省生长季干旱指数以0.13 10 a^(-1)的速率显著下降,干旱整体呈现加剧趋势;20世纪60年代和70年代、80年代初到90年代中后期,干旱强度呈减弱趋势;80年代初、90年后期代初到2015年,干旱强度呈加剧趋势;1996年全省SPEI指数发生了突变性下降,干旱程度发生了突变性增强,其中,2000年全省有47个站点发生了干旱,干旱率高达94%,是近55年来干旱发生范围最大的年份,其次是1999和2014年,干旱率分别为92%和88%;全省SPEI指数的空间分布主要呈现全区一致型、东南与西北反向型、中部与其他地区反向型等3个模态,其中,全区一致型高值区包括葫芦岛沿海地区、锦州地区、沈阳地区、鞍山地区等,表明这些地区对干旱的反应最为敏感。时间系数序列显示出明显的下降趋势;东南与西北反向型中,空间系数0值线位于辽宁中部,呈东北西南向,0值线以西的辽西和辽北地区其空间系数为负值,而0值线以东地区的空间系数为正。时间系数序列的变化趋势不明显;中部及渤海沿岸与其他区反向型中,东南及西部地区空间系数均为正值,而其他区为负值。时间系数序列无明显变化趋势。Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data from 50 meteorological stations during 1961-2015,the temporal and spatial characteristics of drought in growing season in Liaoning Province were analyzed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index（ SPEI）,linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall abrupt test and empirical orthogonal function（ EOF）. The results showed that the SPEI significantly decreased with a rate of 0.1310 a-1and the overall trend of drought increased from 1961 to 2015 in Liaoning Province. The drought intensity varied with time,i. e.,it was gradually weakened in the 1960 s and 1970 s,gradually strengthened at the beginning of 1980 s,then continuously decreased from the early 1980 s to midlate 1990 s and finally strengthened continuously from the late 1990 s to 2015. In 1996,the SPEI for the whole province abruptly decreased with a sudden enhancement in the drought intensity.Especially in 2000,the largest range of drought in recent 55 years occurred at 47 meteorological stations,accounting for 94% of the total area. The drought rates were 92% and 88% in 1999 and2014,respectively. There were three major modes for the spatial distribution of SPEI,i. e.,the regional consistent type,the reverse type between southeast and northwest and the reverse typebetween central and other regions. The regional consistent type with high values included coastal Huludao,Jinzhou,Shenyang and Anshan,which indicated that these areas were most sensitive to drought. There was a significant decreasing tendency in the time coefficient of the first mode. In the reverse type between southeast and northwest,the zero value line of space coefficient located at the central Liaoning exhibiting northeast-southwest. The space coefficient of the west and the north of Liaoning located to the west of zero value line was negative,but the space coefficient of the regions in the east of zero value line was positive. There was no clear tendency in the time coefficient of the second mode. In the reverse type betw

关 键 词：SPEI指数 干旱 EOF分解 时空分布特征 辽宁省 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]