冷链物流断链风险的熵权可拓评价研究  

A Study on the Risk Assessment of Cold Chain Scission Based on Entropy Weight and Extension Decision Model

作　　者：彭本红[1] 武柏宇[1] 周叶[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南昌航空大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330063

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第1期110-119,共10页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"服务型制造项目治理的影响机理及机制设计研究"(71263040);国家自然科学基金项目"区域农产品冷链物流碳减排的机理;路径与策略研究"(71563030)

摘　　要：伴随冷链市场的日益增大,断链风险问题日益突出,冷链物流断链风险影响行业的健康发展。剖析冷链物流运营全过程,发现冷链物流断链主要存在运作风险、设备风险、信息风险、技术风险、人员风险、政策风险、突发风险等7个方面的风险因素,以此构建冷链物流断链风险评价指标体系;基于熵权可拓决策模型,构建表征我国冷链物流断链风险状态的多指标属性评价模型;就某食品冷链物流企业的断链风险数据进行实例研究。结果表明:冷链物流企业的断链风险一般处于较低危险状态;评价结果基本与实际一致,体现了指标选取和模型构建的有效性,可为解决冷链物流的断链风险提供新的思路。The expansion of cold chain market increases the risk of chain scission,which affects the healthy development of the whole cold chain logistics industry.This article analyzes the whole process of cold chain logistics operation,and identifies seven major risks,namely,the operational risk,the equipment risk,the information risk,the technical risk,the personnel risk,the policy risk,and the emergency risk.Based on the analysis,this article builds a risk assessment system for the cold chain logistics,and constructs a multi-index evaluation model to characterize the risk state of cold chain logistics in China with the entropy weight extension decision model.With the help of this model,a research is conducted to analyze the data of food chain scission risk.The results show that the chain scission risk of cold chain logistics enterprise is generally at a low rate,which is basically consistent with the actual state,proving the effectiveness of the index selection and the model.It is believed that this research provides new approaches to dealing with the risk of cold chain logistics chain scission.

关 键 词：冷链物流 断链风险 熵权 可拓决策 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]