考虑非能耗的煤炭产业碳排放驱动因素研究——基于LMDI模型的实证分析  

Research on Driving Factors of Carbon Emission in the Coal Industry from the Perspective of Non-energy Consumption— An Empirical Analysis Based on LMDI Decomposition

作　　者：李跃[1] 张士强[1,2] 张翼[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学,管理科学与工程专业博士生266590 [2]济南大学,教授250022

出　　处：《江苏社会科学》2017年第1期23-31,共9页Jiangsu Social Sciences

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目"山东省煤炭工业碳排放驱动因素及碳减排仿真路径研究"(批号:ZR2014GM010);国家统计科研重点项目"低碳背景下中国煤炭工业转型升级统计指标体系与评价考核研究"(编号:2014LZ35);山东省社会科学规划研究项目"山东省煤矿装备制造业转型升级研究"(编号:14CGLJ26)阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于山东省煤炭产业2005-2014年时间序列数据,运用对数平均迪氏分解方法(LMDI),将碳排放的相关影响因素分解为能源结构、能源强度、煤炭产业人均生产总值、煤炭企业人口强度、煤炭企业数量等五个驱动因素,分别计算了包含非能耗排放和不包非能耗排放时六类驱动因素的贡献值和贡献率。结果表明,能源强度、人均生产总值和煤炭企业人口强度因素对煤炭产业碳排放具有抑制作用,其中能源强度因素抑制作用较为明显,人均生产总值驱动效应波动性较强;能源结构和煤炭企业数量两个因素对煤炭产业碳排放具有持续推动作用,其中煤炭企业数量是碳排放增加的最大拉动因素;在不考虑非能耗排放时,能源结构推动作用将转变为抑制作用,表明非能耗碳排放因素对煤炭产业碳排放量影响极大。通过对五类驱动因素的深入分析,提出相关政策建议。By availing LMDI model into 2005-2014 time series data collected from Shandong province＇s coal industry, we conclude the influencing factors of carbon emission： energy consumption structure, energy intensity, per capita GDP for the coal industry, population intensity of coal enterprise and number of coal enterprises. With or without the CBM emission, contribution value and contribution rate of these factors are calculated respectively. Results show that per capita GDP for the coal industry, population intensity of coal enterprise and especially energy intensity have inhibiting effect on carbon emission, though the first factor fluctuates in its driving effect. Besides, energy consumption structure and number of coal enterprises consistently raise carbon emission. However, energy consumption structure＇ s driving effect converts into inhibiting one if CBM emission not taken into account, which reveals the great impact of CBM emissions on coal industry. Lastly, several relative strategic suggestions are offered.

关 键 词：LMDI 煤炭产业 碳排放 因素分解 非耗能排放 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济]