新疆乌恰地震窗的异常特征与强震短期预报  

ANOMALY OF WUQIA SEISMIC WINDOW AND SHORT-TERM PREDICTION ON STRONG EARTHQUAKES

作　　者：张琳琳[1] 敖雪明[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《内陆地震》2016年第4期330-334,共5页Inland Earthquake

基　　金：新疆地震科学基金(201404);中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2015010122)

摘　　要：采用新疆乌恰地震台2008年1月-2015年6月的单台数字地震仪记录，系统研究了ML≥1．0、S-P≤10s范围内的小震月频度的变化及其与附近强震的关系。主要研究结果：（1）乌恰地震窗在正常情况下，小震活动频度一般处于较高水平，其值在低于175次／月的范围内随机波动，而当小震月频度≥175次／月，即出现异常高值时，其后均有帆≥6．3强震发生。（2）高值异常出现后，强震发震的优势时间为3个月以内。（3）小震月频度的异常形态表现为高值一低值一发震或高值一发震。最后，对乌恰地震窗在强震短期预报中的应用以及可能的物理机制等问题进行了讨论。Taking single digit seismic records of Wuqia station from January, 2008 to June, 2015 based on the data of Wuqia seismic window, writers selected and studied the monthly frequency change of small earthquakes with ML≥ 1.0 and the S - P value of 10 s, as well as their relationship with nearby strong earthquakes. The results showed that ： （ 1 ） the activity frequency of small earth- quakes was generally at a higher level when Wuqia seismic window was under normal circumstances, all the monthly values of which were lower than 175, however, when the abnormality with the monthly frequency of small earthquakes above 175 emerged, then following were the strong earth- quakes of Ms ≥ 6.3. （2） When the high value anomalies raised, the advantage time for strong earthquakes was within 3 months. （3） The anomaly patterns of monthly frequency for small earth- quakes were characterized by high value-low-earthquake or high value-earthquake. Finally, it dis- cussed the possible physical interpretation of Wuqia seismic window and the issues of its application in short-term prediction for strong earthquakes and the like.

关 键 词：地震窗 地震短期预报 乌恰 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]