经济新常态下中国电力需求增长研判  

Analysis on the China's Electricity Demand Growth under the New Economic Norm

作　　者：单葆国[1] 孙祥栋[1] 李江涛[1] 王向[1] 马丁[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京102209

出　　处：《中国电力》2017年第1期19-24,共6页Electric Power

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(XM2015020033456)~~

摘　　要：当前中国经济进入"新常态"阶段,经济增长速度、产业结构、发展动力等因素发生深刻变化。深入分析新常态下中国经济发展特点、科学研判电力需求增长趋势,对电力行业可持续发展具有重要意义。综合考虑供给侧结构性改革以及需求侧因素,预计未来15年,中国经济增速总体呈"倾角向下"的L型增长特征。电力消费增速进一步放缓,预计2020、2030年全社会用电量分别为7.0万亿~7.6万亿k W·h和9.1万亿~11万亿k W·h。分结构看,第三产业和居民生活用电成为拉动全社会用电增长的主要动力;分地区看,西部地区用电比重上升,但未来东部地区仍然是全国的负荷中心。China＇ s economy is in a stage of ＂New Norm＂, under which the economic growth rate, industrial structure and driving forces for development are now experiencing fundamental changes. It is of great strategic importance to analyze the economic development trends and new featules of power industry under the ＂New Norm＂. Considering the structural reform of supply-side and the factor of demand-side, the overall economic growth of China will be characterized by a＂L＂ type downward slope in the period of 13th Five-Year Plan （2016-2020） and 2021-2030. The electricity consumption growth will slow further. It is expected that the total electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 7-7.6 trillion kW＇ h and 9.1-11 trillion kW·h in 2020 and 2030, respectively. In terms of structure, the electricity consumption of third industry and residents will become the main driving force for electricity consumption growth of the whole society. In terms of regions, the proportion of electricity consumption in the western region will increase, but the eastern region will still be the country＇ s load center in the future.

关 键 词：经济发展 电力需求 电力规划 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]