南海海洋气象数值预报系统(Grapes-MAMS)及其业务应用  

REGIONAL MARINE AND METEOROLOGICAL MODEL SYSTEM FOR SOUTH CHINA SEA AND OPERATIONAL APPLICATIONS

作　　者：刘春霞[1] 赵中阔[1] 袁金南[1] 温冠环[1] 毕雪岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510640

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2016年第6期890-899,共10页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：2014年中国气象局小型业务化项目"全国海洋气象精细化预报业务系统建设(一期)";2015年广东山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程建设项目"登陆台风风暴潮致洪预警预报系统研发";2007年中国气象局业务建设项目"海岸带海-陆-气相互作用科学试验与耦合模式系统研发";2010年广东省气象局创新团队等项目共同资助

摘　　要：介绍了中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所建立的南海海洋气象数值预报系统(Grapes-MAMS)框架、系统中各模式特点以及针对模式所做的改进工作;并基于广东省沿海浮标资料,分析和研究了该系统中各个专业模式预报性能。得到如下结论:(1)从给出的统计检验和技巧评分来看,区域海浪模式逐年改进,具有一定预报能力;区域海浪模式和欧洲中期天气预报中心全球海浪模式相比,前者预报技巧TS评分大于后者;(2)实测海表温度的同化明显改进了区域海洋环流模式对海表温度的预报,检验结果显示海表温度预报与浮标观测海表温度相关系数在0.7左右,通过了α=0.01显著性检验;(3)将基于广东茂名科学试验基地得到的拖曳系数计算方案引入风暴潮模式,可以有效地改进风暴潮模式对强台风"威马逊"风暴增水预报,2013—2015年6个风暴潮模式预报检验显示,模式可以提前20 h以上给出最大风暴增水预报,而且最大风暴增水预报与实际相差不大。In this paper, a marine meteorological model system （Grapes-MAMS） by Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine meteorology （ITMM） CMA is introduced to describe its running framework, configuration of a regional ocean model, a wave model and a storm surge model in the system. Based on buoy data in offshore Guangdong, the results of model verification are shown. Sea surface temperature are assimilated, wind fields are improved and drag coefficients are replaced in the storm surge model. The following conclusions are drawn ： （ 1 ） The verification results showed that the operational wave model is improved year by year by ITMM. Comparisons of the significant wave height forecasting score for Guangdong offshore areas between the Grapes-MAMS regional wave model and the European Center global wave model indicate that the TS of the former model has larger scores than that of the latter. （2） The prediction of sea surface temperature of the regional ocean model improved significantly by assimilating SST, and the correlation coefficient between SST prediction from model and buoy observations is about 0. 7. （3） When the new drag coefficient based on the Maoming scientific base was introduced to the storm surge model, strong typhoon Ramasun storm surge forecasting can be effectively improved. The storm surge model can give maximum storm surge forecasting more than 20 hours ahead while there is little difference between the forecast and the observation of the maximum storm surge.

关 键 词：海洋气象数值预报 海浪模式 风暴潮模式 检验 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]