新能源汽车技术演化统计仿真研究  

The Technology Evolution of New Energy Vehicles Based on Computational Experiments

作　　者：张海斌[1,2] 刘小峰[3] 李芳林[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学工程管理学院,南京210093 [2]江苏大学管理学院,江苏镇江212013 [3]南京财经大学,南京210046 [4]江苏大学财经学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第2期47-50,共4页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71503105;71301070;71501084;71301062);国家社会科学基金资助项目(12CGL114)

摘　　要：新能源汽车技术的推广与市场演进关联到新能源汽车相关的各个主体及其环境,是一个复杂的系统问题。文章采用计算实验方法,基于规则构建了新能源汽车关联的系统主体交互模型。考虑系统中主体的异质性和适应性特征和系统演化途径,研究了新能源汽车技术导致的市场格局变化以及汽车特征变化,分析了新能源汽车和传统能源汽车制造商的不同创新投入行为,揭示了不同政府补贴措施对系统演化的影响。the technology promotion and the market evolution of new energy vehicles are associated with their main body and environment, that leads to a complex and systematic problem. Applying the experimental method and based on the rules, system main body interaction model of the new energy vehicles is built. Combined with the system in the main body＇ s heterogeneity, adapt- ability characteristic and the way of system evolution, the research shows that how the new energy vehicles technology cause the changes of market pattern as well as the new energy vehicles characteristics. After comparing the carmaker＇s behavior of innovation between the new energy vehicles and traditional ones, the influence of different government subsidies to system evolution is revealed.

关 键 词：新能源汽车 计算实验 技术 演化 

分 类 号：F422[经济管理—产业经济]