基于三点估计法的新能源电网快速风险评估  

Three Point Estimation Method for Rapid Risk Evaluation of Transmission System with New Energy

作　　者：芦晶晶[1] 杜松怀[1] 韦永忠[2] 孙璐[3] 苏娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学电气工程学院,北京100083 [2]江苏省电力公司,南京210024 [3]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192

出　　处：《高电压技术》2017年第1期172-180,共9页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0900101)~~

摘　　要：由于风能、太阳能的间歇性和随机性问题,增大了新能源并网输出功率的不确定性。基于三点估计法建立新能源出力模型,将新能源电源输出功率为连续不确定的概率问题转化为3个估计点的确定性数学问题,并采用改进最小割集法计算电网的各项风险指标。同时,提出了适应于局部电网拓扑变化的改进方法,自动快速搜索出局部拓扑变化后的连通路集,满足大规模电网日常风险计算要求。通过对IEEE-RTS79系统及实际省网进行风险计算,结果表明三点估计法可有效实现含新能源电网的风险指标计算,所提出的改进方法满足电网日常计算要求。Due to the intermittent and randomness of wind power and solar energy, the uncertainty of the output power increases after new energy assess. Therefore, we established an output model of new energy based on three-point estima- tion method and turned a probability problem into a deterministic mathematical problem. Then, we calculated risk indices of transmission network using improved minimum-cut-sets method. Moreover, we put forward an evaluation method which could adapt to local topology changes and search the connected minimal-path sets after local topology changes for meeting the requirements of large-scale computing. Finally, we calculated the reliability indexes in IEEE-RTS79 system and real provincial power grid. The results show the three-point estimation method is effective and correct. In addition, the improved method provided by the author can meet the needs of daily calculation.

关 键 词：三点估计法 新能源 风险评估 改进最小割集法 局部拓扑变化 

分 类 号：TM727[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]