架空输电线路山火预测预警技术  

Prediction and Early Warning Technology of Wildfire Nearby Overhead Transmission Lines

作　　者：陆佳政[1] 刘毓[1] 徐勋建[1] 杨莉[1] 章国勇[1] 何立夫[1] 

机构地区：[1]电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室(国网湖南省电力公司防灾减灾中心),长沙410007

出　　处：《高电压技术》2017年第1期314-320,共7页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：国家电网公司重大科技项目(5216A514001M)~~

摘　　要：大范围架空输电线路山火灾害易引起多条架空线路同时跳闸,严重威胁大电网安全稳定运行和用户正常用电。为了提前对架空输电线路山火灾害进行预测预警,改变现有架空输电线路山火处置手段较为被动的局面,综合考虑气象要素、卫星监测热点要素、工农业用火要素和架空输电线路隐患点要素与山火发生的关系,研究了基于"4要素"的架空输电线路山火预报方法,并提出了山火密度时间序列预测模型。该方法可同时对多个地区、多个时间段的架空输电线路山火进行预警,将预测山火发生"可能性"量化为发生"次数",预测空间分辨率可提高至2.5 km×2.5 km,实现了架空输电线路山火的精细化预测。利用该研究成果,可对架空输电线路山火进行预测预警,提前做好应对措施,化被动为主动,提高山火防治效率与电网安全稳定性能。Large-scale wildfire can easily cause multiple overhead transmission lines trips, leading to serious threat to security and stability of the power grid and the public＇s normal use of electricity. In order to predict the grid wildfire dis- aster in advance, and to change the passive situation of the existing disposal means, by comprehensively analyzing the relationship between wildfire and meteorological element, satellite-monitored hotspot element, industrial and agricultural fire element, and grid wildfire hidden trouble element,we studied a kind of ＇four-element＇ space and time early warning method for overhead transmission line wildfire, and proposed the time series forecasting model for wildfire density , which could display the danger degree of multiple regions and multiple time quantum simutaneously.We adopted the fire ＇occurrence times＇ instead of ＇probability＇ to increase the spatial resolution of prediction degree up to 2.5 km^2.5 km, thus, the refinement-prediction of grid wildfire could be realized. According to the research, forecasting and early warning of power grid wildfires can be carried out, so the prevention and control resources can be deployed in advance, and improve the efficiency of the wildfire prevention and the secure and stability of large power grid.

关 键 词：架空输电线路 山火预警 山火密度 “4要素” 时间序列预测 精细化预测 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]