折旧率不同对资本存量估算的影响  

How will Different Depreciation Rates Affect the Estimation of China's Capital Stock

作　　者：姜振茂 汪伟[1] JIANG Zhen-mao WANG Wei(Institute of Finance and Economics Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, Chin)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2017年第1期9-14,共6页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目<我国低消费的原因与扩大消费需求的长期政策与长效机制研究>(13AJL004)

摘　　要：资本存量是宏观经济分析与统计研究的重要指标,近年来学者普遍认为折旧率的大小直接影响了资本存量的估算结果。李宾首次对此展开系统研究,但由于李宾前后两个时间段采用的折旧率不一致,因此估算结果存在偏差。在对资本存量估算指标进行分析的基础上,重新估算了中国1978—2014年的资本存量,研究了折旧率对资本存量估算的影响。发现折旧率相差1个百分点,25年之后资本存量大约相差5.4个百分点,5%折旧率与10%折旧率的估算结果相差20%,以往的学者可能高估了折旧率对资本存量估算的影响。The estimation of capital stock is very important to macroeconomic and statistical research. Previous literature shows that different depreciation rates affect the estimation of China＇s capital stock greatly. Libin＇s work is systematical, but he used different depreciation rates for two different periods, so his research results may not be reliable. We analyze different data items and re-estimate the capital stock of China between 1978 and 2014 then find that the difference of capital stock under different depreciation rates is not very significant, if depreciation rates are 1% larger, capital stocks will be 5. 4% smaller after 25 years, the estimation difference based on 5% and 10% depreciation rates is 20%. Our work shows that previous literature may over-estimate the effect of depreciation rates on capital stock.

关 键 词：资本存量 永续盘存法 折旧率 

分 类 号：F032.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F222.33