中国服务业显性比较优势测算——基于前向联系增加值出口  

Analysis on the Revealed Comparative Advantage of China's Service Industry:Based on Forward-Linkage Measure of Value Added

作　　者：牛华[1] 宋旭光[1] NIU Hua SONG Xu-guang(School of Statistics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学统计学院,北京100875

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2017年第1期67-75,共9页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：北京师范大学研究生创新创业科研基金项目<贸易增加值核算方法及其在中国应用>(2016-2017年度);国家社会科学基金项目<中国税源核算的统计体系与应用研究>(11BTJ005);国家统计局2012投入产出课题<对外贸易对中国经济影响力的比较研究(IO12-ZC34)

摘　　要：基于"前向联系增加值出口"方法,测算了1995-2011年中国服务业细分产业层面及按要素密集度特征分类层面的显性比较优势指数(RCA_F),并同基于"总出口"1的比较优势指数(RCA)进行了比较。研究发现,中国在全球价值链分工中,比较优势集中在资本密集型服务业领域,且实现了比较劣势向比较优势的转变;劳动、知识密集型服务业及健康教育公共服务均尚未取得比较优势,但是有迹象表明三个领域的比较劣势有改善的趋势。与基于前向联系增加值出口核算结果相比,基于总出口核算结果"高估"了劳动密集型产业的比较优势,其中对建筑业和零售贸易两个部门的估计偏差最大;同时,在资本、知识密集型两个领域存在不同程度的"低估"现象。Based on the forward linkage value added exports from 1995 to 2011, this paper calculates China＇s service industry revealed comparative advantage on segments of the industry level and according to the factor intensity characteristics of the classification level of dominant, and ＂exports ＂ accounting method calculated the comparative advantage index （RCA） were compared. Results showed that： China in the division of labor of the global value chain, comparative advantage concentrated in capital intensive service sector and has achieved a transformation from comparative disadvantage to the comparative advantage, knowledge intensive services and health, education, public service have not yet to obtain a comparative advantage, hut there are signs that the three areas of comparative disadvantage have an improved trend. The results based on the gross accounting results overestimated the comparative advantage of laborintensive industries, which most of the bias in the estimate of construction industry and retail trade industry two; at the same time, there exists different degree ＂undervalued＂ phenomenon in the capital intensive and knowledge intensive fields.

关 键 词：前向联系增加值 出口竞争力 显性比较优势 世界投入产出表 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学] F752