一种基于ARMA模型的配电网馈线负荷预测方法  

A Kind of Distribution Grid Feeder Load Forecasting Method Based on Auto-Regressive and Moving Average Model

作　　者：李晓东[1] 陈中显[2] LI Xiao-dong CHEN Zhong-xian(State Grid Wuxi Power Supply Company, Wuxi 214062, China State Grid Hefei Power Supply Company, Hefei 230022, China)

机构地区：[1]国网无锡供电公司,江苏无锡214062 [2]国网合肥供电公司,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《电工电气》2017年第1期35-37,共3页Electrotechnics Electric

摘　　要：为了提高配电网系统的运行效率和稳定性,在建立ARMA模型的基础上,对配电网馈线负荷进行预测和分析。建立了配电网馈线负荷数据序列及ARMA模型,对馈线负荷数据序列的差分运算、标准化、自相关系数和偏相关系数进行分析,并采用ARMA模型对未来某一时间段内的配电网馈线负荷数据序列进行预测。算例结果分析表明,ARMA模型预测值与实际值相符。In order to improve the operational efficiency and stability of distribution grid system, this paper carried out prediction and analysis for distribution grid feeder load, based on the establishment of auto-regressive and moving average （ARMA） model. The distribution grid feeder load data series and the ARMA model were established to analyze the difference operation, standardization, autocorrelation coefficient and par- tial correlation coefficient of feeder load data series. The ARMA model was adopted to predict the distribution grid feeder load data series in certain period of time. The analysis results of calculation examples show that the prediction value of the ARMA model conforms to the actual value.

关 键 词：配电网 馈线负荷预测 数据序列 ARMA模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]