基于广义帕累托分布的马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震危险性估计  

Seismic Hazard Estimation of the Manila Trench Subduction Zone based on Generalized Pareto Distribution

作　　者：田建伟[1] 刘哲[1] 任鲁川[1] YIAN Jian-wei LIU Zhe REN Lu-chuan(Institute of Disaster Prevention Technology, Sanhe 065201, China)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院,河北三河065201

出　　处：《地震》2017年第1期158-165,共8页Earthquake

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41276020);中央高校基本科研业务费(ZY20160312);中央高校基本科研业务费(ZY20160311)

摘　　要：选取马尼拉海沟俯冲带作为潜源区,基于广义帕累托分布,通过对一定时段内超过某一阈值的震级数据进行拟合,建立该潜源区地震危险性估计模型,估计强震重现水平和震级上限,并对估计结果的不确定性进行了分析,得到马尼拉海沟俯冲带震级上限为9.0级,10a、50a、100a、200a马尼拉海沟俯冲带的震级重现水平期望值分别为7.1级、7.6级、7.7级、7.9级。In this paper, the Manila trench subduction zone was choosen as a potential source to establish its seismic hazard estimation model based on generalized Pareto distribution by fitting magnitude data larger than a specific threshold in a certain period. Both the recurrence of strong earthquake and the upper magnitude limit for that subduction zone are estimated, as well as their uncertainties. The results show that the upper magnitude limit of the Manila trench subduction zone is Mg. 0, and the magnitude return level expec- tation for 10, 50, 100 and 200 years is M7.1, M7.6, MT. 7, MT. 9, respectively .

关 键 词：地震危险性估计 广义帕累托分布 震级重现水平 马尼拉海沟俯冲带 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]