不同制约因素下房价对居民消费的影响研究——基于省级面板数据门槛模型的实证  

A Study on the Impact of Housing Prices on Residents Consumption under Different Constraints——An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data and Threshold Model

作　　者：祝丹[1] 陈立双[1] 

机构地区：[1]闽南师范大学商学院,福建漳州363000

出　　处：《石家庄经济学院学报》2016年第6期27-32,共6页Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics

基　　金：福建省中青年教师教育一般项目(JAS160295)

摘　　要：论文考虑不同制约因素下房价对居民消费的影响可能存在非线性转换,基于中国2000年—2013年间省际面板数据和门槛模型来检验老年人口比重、少儿人口比重及住房资产占比在房价波动对居民消费的影响中是否存在门槛效应,结果发现三个门槛变量均存在双重门槛效应,但对应的三种区制转换特点不同。在人口年龄结构变量的不同区制下房价对居民消费均具有正向影响,但随着老年人口比重的增加,房价对居民消费的影响程度先增后减;随着少儿人口比重的增加,房价对居民消费的作用程度先减后增;住房资产占比的前两种区制下房价对居民消费的影响为负值,跨过第二个门槛值后开始转为正向影响。In this paper,it considers the influence of housing prices on residents consumption may exist nonlinear transformation under different factors,and test whether the elderly population proportion,the children population proportion and the proportion of housing assets exist threshold effect for the influence based on China’s provincial panel data during 2000-2013. The results showed there exist double threshold effects for the three threshold variables,but the corresponding kinds of regime switching characteristics are different： the positive housing wealth effect exists under different regimes of the age structure variables,but the influence degree rise at first and then drop with the increasing of the elderly population proportion,and the degree rise after the first drop with the increase of the children population proportion; the impact of housing prices on resident consumption is negative under the first two regime of housing assets proportion,and begin to become positive impact after crossing the second threshold value.

关 键 词：居民消费 住房财富效应 面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]