中国人口年龄结构特征与变化趋势分析——基于1995～2014年数据的实证研究  

Analysis on the Characteristics and Trend of Population Age Structure in China:An Empirical Study Based on Data from 1995 to 2014

作　　者：刘书明[1] 常硕[1] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学人文学院西部农村发展与社会保障研究中心,兰州730070

出　　处：《西北人口》2017年第1期1-11,共11页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：2013年教育部人文社科规划基金一般项目:西北民族地区农村公共服务多元供给体系与农民需求表达机制研究(编号:13YJA81008)阶段性成果

摘　　要：人口年龄结构是经过多年人口自然增长和迁移变动等综合作用而形成的客观状况,对未来人口发展的速度和趋势以及国家或地区经济社会整体发展产生重要影响。本文通过对1995~2014年数据的实证分析,发现20年来我国人口年龄结构呈现以下特征:少儿人口数量减少且比重呈持续下降趋势;劳动年龄人口数量稳步增长且比重呈稳定上升趋势;老年人口数量持续增长且比重呈上升趋势,老龄化进程加快。总体人口年龄结构呈现老年型,各地区人口老龄化程度存在差异。各地人口负担系数存在较大差异,人均GDP与总抚养比和少年儿童抚养比呈负相关,与老年人口抚养比呈正相关。经济发达省市区人口负担系数较小;城乡人口比例呈持续升高态势;城乡人口总抚养比和少儿抚养比呈下降趋势,城乡老年人口抚养比呈稳步升高态势;乡村人口抚养比高于城镇。The population age structure is the objective condition for many years after the comprehensive effect of natural population growth and migration and the formation, not only have a significant impact on the speed and the tendency of the future development of the population,but also to the economic and social overall development of countries or regions will have an important impact. Based on the analysis of empirical data from 1995 to 2014,we found the following characteristics of China's population age structure has 20 years to reduce the number of children: children population, the proportion of the population continued to decline trend; the steady growth of the number of working age population, the proportion of working age population showed a steady upward trend; the number of the elderly population continues to grow,the proportion of the elderly population is rising the trend, speed up the aging process. The population age structure of the population showed old age, but there were differences in the degree of population aging in each region. There is a big difference between the population burden coefficient, the per capita GDP and the total dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio is still negative correlation,and the elderly population dependency ratio is positively correlated. The economically developed province urban population burden coefficient is small; the proportion of urban and rural population is rising trend of urban and rural population; the total dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio decreased,urban and rural elderly population dependency ratio showed a steady increase trend;rural population dependency ratio is higher than that of urban.

关 键 词：人口年龄 结构特征 变化趋势 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]