新疆人口数量变化能否促进经济增长?——基于VEC模型的动态实证研究  

Population Changes can Promote Economic Growth in Xinjiang:Based on Empirical Research on Dynamic VEC Model

作　　者：刘磊[1] 刘永萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《西北人口》2017年第1期105-112,共8页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"基于水权视角的玛纳斯流域水资源利用效率研究(41361101)";国家社会科学基金"西北干旱区城市综合承载力研究(14BJY046)";兵团社科基金:"基于资源环境承载力的新疆适度人口规模研究(12BY36)

摘　　要：为了研究新疆人口数量变化能否促进经济增长,本文在生态环境承载力、劳动力边际产出和人口理论方面论述了人口数量变化与经济增长的相互作用机理,在此基础上通过VEC模型对人口数量、人均GDP和财政预算收入进行动态研究,结果为:长期人均GDP和人口数量成正向关系,弹性为0.33,但财政预算收入却因人口数量的增加而呈现小幅度降低,弹性为0.09。短期内人均GDP与人口数量成反向关系,财政预算收入的增加反而能够促进人口数量的增加。To study the relationship between the changes of population in Xinjiang and economic growth,this paper stated the interaction mechanism between population change and economic growth in the ecological environmental bearing capacity,labor marginal output and population theory.On the basis of that,through the VEC model got the results as follows:in the long term,it's a positive relationship between per capita GDP and population quantity and the elasticity coefficient is0.33.However the budget income decreased at small amplitude with the increase of population,ratio of 0.09. In the short term,it's a reverse relationship between the per capita GDP and population,but the budget income can promote the increase of the population.

关 键 词：人口数量 人均GDP VEC模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]