龙岩市1960—2013年气候变化特征及未来趋势分析  

Changes in temperature and precipitation of Longyan city during 1960-2013 and future prediction

作　　者：赵嘉阳 郭福涛[2] 王文辉[2] 丘永杭 靳全锋 林玉蕊[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学计算机与信息学院 [2]福建农林大学林学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第1期95-102,共8页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2015J05049);福建省教育厅资助项目(JK2014012);保险精算实验室资助项目(118310010);基于信息技术的复合型创新人才培养平台建设项目(117-612014047)

摘　　要：应用线性回归R/S法,分析龙岩市1960—2013年的气温及降水的变化趋势.结果表明:龙岩市四季和年均气温呈上升趋势,年均气温上升显著,线性趋势为0.014℃·a-1,未来变化趋势具有持续增长的趋势.四季和年均气温平均循环时间长度分别为6、5、8、8、11 a.龙岩市年降水量线性趋势为0.877 mm·a-1,春季、夏季降水量保持持续递增,秋季降水量持续递减,冬季降水量和年降水量则呈持续递增.四季和年降水量均循环长度分别为8、14、8、7、5 a.气温的持续升高抑制了降水量的减少.Linear regression and rescaled range analysis were used to analyze changes in temperature and precipitation of Longyan during 1960-2013. The result showed increases in seasonal and annual temperature. Linear trend for annual temperature was 0.014℃·a-1,indicating a continuous increase in the future. Average cycle durations for 4 seasons and annual temperature were 6 , 5,8, 8 and 11 a respectively. Linear trend for annual precipitation was 0.877 mm·a-1 . Precipitation in spring a n d s u m m e r continuously increased but decrease in autumn. While winter and annual precipitation increase,which was contrar^^ to the past. Average cycle du-rations for annual and 4 seasons temperature were 8 , 14, 8,7 a n d 5 a respectively. T h e decreased precipitation w a s attributed to in-creased air temperature.

关 键 词：气温 降水量 线性回归 R/S分析法 

分 类 号：P40[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]