考虑多风险因素的电网调度操作风险评估  

Power grid risk assessment of dispatching operation considering multi-risk elements

作　　者：刘雪飞 田启东 焦昊[2] 郭创新[2] 林欣慰 李俊 何蓝图 

机构地区：[1]深圳供电局有限公司,广东深圳518033 [2]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2016年第4期109-115,共7页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(51537010)

摘　　要：将风险评估理论引入调度操作分析中,考虑多种风险影响因子,提出一种电网调度操作风险评估方法。为了全面分析调度操作各步骤的风险,基于事件树理论模拟调度操作的发展过程,并生成调度操作状态集;通过量化元件老化与恶劣天气对调度操作成功率的影响,以电压越限、潮流过载和损失负荷衡量后果严重度,建立量化风险评估指标体系,并详细分析相应的评估框架。对IEEE-RTS79测试系统进行仿真分析,分析结果表明,该文所提方法能有效评估调度操作各步骤的风险水平,辨识关键操作步骤,实现了调度操作风险"事前防范"的目的。This paper proposed a risk assessment method of power grid dispatching operation considering multi-risk elements. In order to analyze each step risk of dispatching operation comprehensively,the development of operation was simulated with event tree theory,and the set of operation states was formed.Considering the influences of components aging and adverse weather condition,the quantized risk assessment index system was established and measured by voltage instability and load loss. The framework of corresponding assessment was described. Simulation analysis results of the IEEE-RTS79 testing system show that the proposed method is able to effectively evaluate the risk level of each operation step and identify the key operation step,which can prevent the dispatching operation risk before-head.

关 键 词：多风险因素 调度操作 风险评估 事件树 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]