基于可靠度分析的水库工程供水保证率核定方法  

Evaluation Method of Water Supply Probability in Reservoir Engineering Based on Reliability Analysis

作　　者：侯保灯[1] 肖伟华[1] 占许珠 吴永祥[3] 王建华[1] 王高旭[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]北京中水睿恒生态环境工程设计咨询有限公司,北京100067 [3]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水力发电》2017年第2期99-103,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51509267);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2012ZX07601001)

摘　　要：目前我国水库工程的供水保证率存在实际供水值严重偏离设计值的情况,需要进行供水保证率的核定。将可靠度分析方法引入到水库工程供水保证率的核定中,并以某水库供水实例进行了研究与验证,计算结果表明:基于可靠度分析的供水保证率核定方法既考虑了传统年供水保证率法对正常供水历时的强调,又考虑了供应水量不足时所带来的负面影响,计算结果更符合实际;对于本例,经计算与分析,该水库实际供水中存在优先保证高设计供水保证率用水户(工业)的供水而破坏低设计供水保证率的用水户(农业)供水的情况。At present, there is a serious deviation from the design value of water supply guarantee rate of reservoir project in China, so the water supply guarantee rate need to be approved. The method of reliability analysis is introduced into the evaluation of water supply probability of reservoir engineering, and a practical reservoir water supply project is studied and validated. The calculation results show that the method based on reliability analysis of water supply reliability evaluation cannot only emphasizes the importance of normal water supply as the traditional method, but aiso consider the negative effects brought by the water supply shortage. The calculation results are more in line with actual situation. For the example, the situation may indeed exist in practical water supply of ensuting the users of high design water supply eriabitity （like industrial user） and damaging low design water supply reliability users （like agriculture user） based on calculatton and analysis results.

关 键 词：可靠度分析 水库工程 供水保证率 核定 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]