上海市国际客源市场时空结构演变研究  

A Study on Temporal and Spatial Structure Evolution of Shanghai International Tourists Market

作　　者：席宇斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海商学院酒店管理学院,上海200235

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2016年第6期76-82,91,共8页Tourism Forum

基　　金：2014年上海高校青年教师培养资助计划(ZZsxy1400);上海商学院旅游管理重点学科建设

摘　　要：时空结构演变是国际客源市场研究的重要研究内容,但国内研究更多的是从客源地角度而非目的地角度进行研究。从时间和空间两个角度,分别采用经济周期波动、季节变动指数和季节强度指数以及地理集中指数等方法,依据1979-2015年的相关数据,对上海市国际客源市场的结构演变进行了研究。结果表明:在时间结构方面,上海市国际客源市场的年际结构整体呈现快速增长态势,但大波大折,符合经济周期划分中的基钦周期,而月际演变表现为双峰型曲线,淡旺季明显,月际集中性有变强的趋势;在空间结构方面,客源国整体繁荣并呈现分散的趋向,其中日本、美国和韩国是3个最重要的客源国,而外国游客在沪呈极核式空间分布,并有由中心城区向郊区、郊县扩张的势头。上海市国际客源市场时空结构演变可以从政治、经济、文化等多个方面得到解释。The study of temporal and spatial structure evolution plays an important role in the study of international tourists market.However,domestic study is always taken from the perspective of tourist source region instead of destination region.Based on related data from 1979 to 2015collected in Shanghai Tourism Yearbook,this paper does a research on the structure evolution of Shanghai international tourists market from the perspectives of time and space.Research methods such as business fluctuation theory,seasonal variation index,seasonal intensity indexes,and geographical concentration index are adopted.The research shows that in terms of temporal structure,Shanghai international tourists market grows every year rapidly,though with some twists and turns,which conforms to Kitchin cycle.Its monthly evolution can be manifested in a bimodal curve which shows an obvious difference between slack seasons and peak periods as well as a trend in monthly concentration.In terms of spatial structure,tourists source country is booming and shows the trend of dispersion,of which Japan,America and South Korea are the most important ones.Foreign tourists in Shanghai are in kernel space distribution,and are expanding from city center to suburbs.The temporal and spatial structure evolution of Shanghai international tourists market is related to factors such as politics,economy,culture and so on.

关 键 词：国际客源市场 时空结构演变 上海 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]