重大工程气候可行性论证进展  

Progress of Demonstrating Feasibility of Major Projects upon Climate

作　　者：史军[1] 温康民 穆海振[1] 刘校辰[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市气候中心,上海200030 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2016年第6期15-21,共7页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2012043;1212117);国家自然科学基金(41401661;41571044);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201503)

摘　　要：论述了重大工程开展气候可行性论证的必要性及意义,分析了当前我国重大工程气候可行性论证在技术、业务和服务方面的进展及存在的问题和解决问题的思路措施,指出了重大工程气候可行性论证关键技术,包括对极端天气气候事件变化的未来预估、对工程与环境间相互影响的数值模拟、对多源立体气候环境信息的综合探测、对灾害影响和致灾风险的动态评估,以及对区域代表性气象参数的实时更新,以期为我国重大工程项目气候可行性论证提供借鉴。This paper discusses the necessity and significance of demonstrating feasibility of major project upon climate,analyzes the progresses and current problems;suggests some ideas and measures to solve these problems in technology,business and service for major projects in China;points out the key technologies,which include the project feasibility on the future extreme weather and climate events,the numerical simulation of the interaction between the major projects and surrounding environment,the comprehensive detection of multi-source and three-dimensional climate information,the dynamic assessment of disaster influence process and risk,the improvement of regional representative and real-time update of meteorological parameters.It offers future references for demonstrating feasibility of major projects upon climate in China.

关 键 词：重大工程 气候可行性论证 气候变化 业务与服务 进展 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]