全球气候变化对我国气候安全影响的思考  

Impacts of Global Climate Change on China's Climate Security

作　　者：王玉洁[1,2] 周波涛[3] 任玉玉[3] 孙丞虎[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210046 [2]甘肃省气象局西北区域气候中心,兰州730020 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2016年第6期750-758,共9页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201514);国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955900);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY2013-06064)

摘　　要：依据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第5次评估报告以及国内相关科学研究成果,使用最新的观测资料凝练了对全球气候变化的有关认识;从极端天气气候事件和气候承载力角度,分析了气候变化给我国带来的气候风险。研究发现:1961—2015年我国平均高温日数增加了28.4%,暴雨日数增加了8.2%。21世纪以来,登陆我国热带气旋的强度明显增加。在全球气候变暖的背景下,我国气候承载力将发生明显变化,未来面临的气候风险将加大。因此,保障我国气候安全,需要科学认识气候,提高气候风险意识;主动适应气候,提高应对极端事件能力;努力保护气候,减缓气候变化的影响。Global warming hiatus phenomenon has been a hot topic of climate research and public concern in recent years.To analyze the climate change during different periods and the trend of extreme climate events,monthly mean land-surface air temperature,daily land-surface air maximum temperature,daily precipitation and mean maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones landed in China are examined.Results reveal that taking the years of 1961 — 1990 as reference period,the global decade mean land-surface air temperature anomalies are-0.052℃ for 1961-1970,-0.066℃ for 1971 —1980,0.116℃ for 1981 —1990,0.274℃ for1991—2000,0.49℃ for 2001-2010 and 0.541℃ for 2011 —2015,in which obvious increasing trend can be easily found.And the years of 2011 — 2015 are the warmest five years for global and Asia since mid-to-late19 th Century.Under the background of climate change,the average high temperature days and heavy rain days increase by 28.4%and 8.2%in China over the last 55 years.Frequencies of extreme climate events increases obviously,leading to increasing climate risks and significant changes of climate capacity.In order to ensure the climate safety,strategies are list as follows：Strengthening the scientific research,and improving the understanding of public and decision maker on climate change,climate safety and climate risk;according to the national and local conditions,taking appropriate adaptation actions,strengthening disaster risk management,to reduce the adverse effects that have occurred and will occur;taking measures to control greenhouse gas emissions against long-term climate risk.At present,the research on climate risk of our country needs more attention,and the public＇s climate security awareness still needs strengthening.Participating in the Global Framework of Climate Service（GFCS） and Future Earth（FE） operations should be made a priority to improve the scientific understanding and strengthen disaster risk management.More steps should be taken to actively adapt climate change,accelerate

关 键 词：气候变化 IPCC 气候风险 气候安全 策略选择 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]