天津新型日光温室风灾风险评估及区划  

Wind Disaster of New Type Solar Greenhouse in Tianjin: Risk Evaluation and Zoning Division

作　　者：陈思宁[1] 黎贞发[1] 柳芳[1] 王铁[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市气候中心,天津300074

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2017年第2期115-120,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：天津市科委青年基金"日光温室黄瓜霜霉病监测预警技术研究"(16JCQNJC14900);天津市气象局博士基金"日光温室番茄低温寡照影响评估与风险评价研究"(BSJJ201505);江苏省农业气象重点实验室(JKLAM)开放课题"日光温室气象灾害综合评估研究"(KYQ1305);中国气象局气候变化专项"日光温室蔬菜种植气象灾害风险评估与管理"(CCSF201521)

摘　　要：为了评估天津新型日光温室风灾风险,本研究在近10年天津日光温室风灾灾情大量实地调查的基础上,根据自然灾害风险评估理论,构建日光温室风灾风险评估模型,计算温室不同等级风灾风险指数,并从站点、空间、时间3个尺度分析了温室风灾风险指数的变化。风险指数站点结果和空间分布结果均表明,宁河、汉沽、塘沽、武清、西青等地是遭受轻、中度风灾风险较高地区。天津新型日光温室遭受轻度风灾的风险最高(风险指数介于0.62~3.15),明显高于中度(风险指数介于0.0~0.61)及重度风灾,而其遭受重度风灾的风险几乎为0,这与天津较少发生8级以上(最大17.2 m/s以上)大风有关。近10年日光温室中、重度风灾风险指数极小且变化基本持平,而轻度风灾风险指数从2005年的2.70逐渐降低至2007年的2.0,2007—2014年始终保持在2.0附近波动。To evaluate wind disaster risk of new type solar greenhouse in Tianjin, based on the wind disaster investigation in field in recent 10 years, the wind disaster risk evaluation model of sola greenhouse was constructed according to nature disaster risk evaluation theory. Then, the authors calculated the risk index of different levels of wind disaster according to the evaluation model and analyzed its variation from meteorological stations, spatial scale and time scale, respectively. The risk index of the meteorological stations and space distribution result showed that： the risk index of mild and moderate wind disaster was higher in Ninghe, Hangu, Tanggu, Wuqing and Xiqing; the risk index of mild wind disaster（risk index between 0.62 and 3.15） was obviously higher than that of the moderate（risk index between 0.0 and 0.61） and severe disaster, and the risk index of severe disaster was nearly 0, because there was little wind disaster maximun with wind speedexceeding 17.2 m/s. In recent 10 years, the risk index of moderate and severe wind disaster basically hold theline. The risk index variation of mild wind disaster changes from 2.70 to 2.0 from 2005 to 2007 and fluctuates with 2.0 after 2007.

关 键 词：新型日光温室 风灾 风险评估 天津 

分 类 号：P79[天文地球—海洋科学] S625[农业科学—园艺学]