基于模糊软集理论的反窃电分析方法  

The Analysis of Birth Rate Variation in China since 1990 and the Projection to the Future

作　　者：王亚楠[1] 钟甫宁[2] 罗序良 WANG Yanan ZHONG Funing(College of Economics and Management, Changzhou Institute of Technology, Changzhou 213000, China China Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

机构地区：[1]常州工学院经济与管理学院,江苏常州213000 [2]南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《人口与经济》2017年第1期1-12,共12页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际（地区）合作与交流项目“人口变化、城乡人口流动和中国的农业与农村发展”（71361140370）;江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD）;常州工学院校级科研基金项目“中国农村迁移与流动人口生育率转变研究”（YN1522）.

摘　　要：针对用电大客户窃电数据,首先,把大客户用电数据训练集用模糊软集合表格形式进行表示;然后,通过构造软集合对照表方法找出待检验的用电大客户所属类别;最后,实验结果显示模糊软集合方法在大客户窃电数据检测上的精度和准度都达到了较高水平,表明该方法是有效的。The birth rate depends on fertility level, fertility pattern and proportion of women ofchildbearing age. This paper forecasts the completed fertility rate （CFR） of the women entering their childbearing age in 1980 to 2010 based on the mean childbearing age at first birth, and calculates birth rates of the year 1990, 2000 and 2010 using CFR as a parameter. It concludes that the birth rate calculated by CFR is little biased with the one calculating by total fertility rate （TFR） in each year of 1990, 2000 and 2010. As a further result the paper explains why the birth rate has dropped and been increasingly lower in China since 1990, which is caused by the drop of fertility level, fertility pattern and proportion of women of childbearing age at the same time. Finally it simulates the newborn population in 2011 to 2050 under three cases of high, medium and low fertility level, which may be changed by the two-child policy. The projection shows that it will keep rising only in a short time even based on the high fertility level scheme. Therefore, the childbearing policy should strengthen the encourage of childbearing in order to have newborn population increased in long-term, and maybe the two-child policy should be released universally as soon as possible whether they are ＂the only child＂ or not.

关 键 词：反窃电方法 模糊软集合 实验 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]