分时电价下大用户概率响应建模研究  

Research on modeling of large users probability response based on TOU price

作　　者：宁艺飞[1,2] 陈星莺[1,2] 颜庆国 徐石明 廖迎晨[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学,南京211100 [2]江苏省配用电与能效工程中心,南京211100 [3]国网江苏省电力公司,南京210024 [4]南瑞集团国电南瑞科技有限公司,南京211100

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2017年第1期22-28,共7页Power Demand Side Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51577051);国家电网公司科技项目(SGJS0000YXJS1501044)

摘　　要：在大用户响应电价特性的基础上,提出了基于用电特性的大用户负荷聚类方法。将大用户的需求响应模型分成负荷基准分量部分和负荷响应分量部分,利用多变量时间序列重构的短期负荷预测方法得到用户的负荷基准分量,在需求价格理论的基础上利用响应实际数据获得单体大用户响应分时电价的负荷概率模型。利用matlab对南京地区实际数据进行仿真模拟,算例表明,该模型能够很好的反映大用户的响应分时电价的情形,为分时电价的制定策略提供科学依据。A clustering method for large user load based on the characteristics of electricity is proposed, Then the demand response model of the large user is divided into the load reference component part and the load response component part. A short term load forecasting method based on multivariate time series reconstruction is used to get the user＇ s load reference component. On the basis of the demand price theory, the load probability model of the single large user response TOU price is obtained by the response of the actual data. Matlab is used to simulate the actual data of Nanjing area. The example shows that the model can well reflect the situation of the large user＇ s response tor TOU price, which provides scientific basis formulating strategy, for TOU price.

关 键 词：分时电价 大用户 电价响应 用户负荷聚类 概率模型 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]