分离冲突的起源:基于国内外联动的视角——乌克兰与摩尔多瓦的配对比较  被引量:4

The Origins of Secessionist Conflicts in View of the Interactions between Domestic and International Forces: A Paired Comparison between Ukraine and Moldova

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作  者:孙超[1] 

机构地区:[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院国际政治系

出  处:《欧洲研究》2016年第6期14-36,共23页Chinese Journal of European Studies

摘  要:以往有关分离主义的研究将分离冲突视为国家内部权力主体之间矛盾激化的产物,难以解释为什么一些地区爆发分离冲突而另一些地区并不存在,并且忽略了外部力量和次地区行为体之间的联动关系。本文认为,地区分离冲突受到两个变量的制约,即分离精英对当地的控制力以及外部支持力量。对分离地区进行有效控制的分离政治精英更容易进行社会动员,获取外部支持,与母国容易爆发冲突,外部力量则促成了分离冲突的升级。而对地方政治难以控制的分离精英则面临更多限制,分离冲突爆发可能性下降,且难以获得外部力量支持。本文选取乌克兰的克里米亚、乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区、摩尔多瓦的德涅斯特河左岸地区和加高兹地区,组建"案例集"进行比较,发现分离冲突爆发主要取决于分离精英能否控制地方政权,而外部干预容易推动分离冲突的升级,致使分离问题难以解决。Most of the previous studies take secessionist conflicts as the result of the escalation of the contradictions among domestic forces. However,it fails to explain why secessionist conflict is not a commonplace phenomenon in all the regions with such problems. In addition,this explanation ignores the interactions between foreign powers and sub- regional forces. This paper argues that two variations have significant impacts on secessionist conflicts. One is local control by the secessionists and the other is the foreign powers supporting the local secessionists. It is much easier for the secessionists to mobilize social groups and acquire external support when they take control of the local governments,which in turn makes seces-sionist conflicts more feasible. On the contrary,the secessionists incapable of controlling the local power will be confronted with more limitations,which will thus decrease the chance of secessionist conflicts. This paper takes Crimea,Donbas Region,the unrecognized entity in the left bank of the Dniester River and Gagauz Yeri as case studies and makes a paired comparison,finding out that the possibility of secessionist conflicts depends on the degree of local control by the secessionists. Instead of ethnic ties,whether the external powers will intervene into the secessionist issue is determined mainly by rational calculation of their national interests.

关 键 词:分离冲突 乌克兰 摩尔多瓦 控制力 外部干预 

分 类 号:D851.13[政治法律—政治学] D851.15[政治法律—外交学]

 

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