基于CMS模型的印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长因素分析  

Analysis of Growth Factors of Indonesian Horticultural Exports to China Based on CMS Model

作　　者：王立新[1] 李房玲 

机构地区：[1]东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海200051

出　　处：《科技和产业》2017年第1期93-99,共7页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：报告了印尼对中国园艺产品出口贸易的现状,采用2010-2014年UN COMTRADE数据,应用恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)的简化形式,即单一市场份额模型分析印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长的主要影响因素。结果表明印尼园艺产品出口额增长最主要的影响因素是竞争力效应,其次是结构效应,次结构效应的影响最小。从发展优势来看,商品竞争力效应和综合竞争力效应占主要的因素,其次是动态结构效应,最后是产品结构效应和增长效应。为了提高印尼园艺产品的出口额,建议印尼政府能够把出口原料转为出口半成品或最终产品,增加印尼园艺产品的出口附加值。This paper provides a simplified CMS model form namely single market model to analyzed the influencing factors of Indonesian, horticul-tural export to China between, year 2010 - 2014, data collected from UN COMTRADE. The result showed that the main, factor affecting the growth of Indonesian, horticultural export to China were the competitive effect, followed by the structural effect and the effect of the second struc-ture. From the second level of the model, the effect of commodity competitiveness and comprehensive competitiveness were the main, factor, fol-lowed by the dynamic structure of the effects and finally the product structure and growth effect. In. order to increase the value of Indonesian, horti-cultural product to China, it is highly recommended to export semi-finished products or final products instead of raw material form.

关 键 词：CMS模型 单一市场份额模型 园艺产品 出口 影响因素 

分 类 号：F740.43[经济管理—国际贸易]