网络谣言和正面信息交互过程建模与仿真  

Modeling and Analyzing the Interaction Between Online Rumors and Positive Information

作　　者：周姝怡[1] 朱恒民[1] 魏静[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学管理学院,江苏南京210003

出　　处：《图书与情报》2016年第6期129-134,共6页Library & Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"互联网舆情演化中群体行为协同演进模型研究"(项目编号:71271120);江苏省社会科学基金项目"大数据时代网络舆情引发群体事件的在线监控研究"(项目编号:14TQC002);南京邮电大学人文社科项目"网络舆情健康发展的影响因素及引导机制研究"(项目编号:NYS212021)研究成果之一

摘　　要：社交网络的迅猛发展使得谣言传播相对过去更加快速、广泛地影响着人们的正常生活。针对现实生活中谣言扩散后,政府或权威组织发布正面信息澄清事实反驳谣言的现象,文章首先根据平均场理论建立一个Susceptible-Negative-Positive-Removed(SNPR)模型来描述网络谣言和正面信息的动态交互过程;然后对该模型表征的动力学过程进行数值仿真;最后分析比较各系统参数的变化对谣言传播效果的影响。结果表明,影响谣言传播的因素包括正面信息辟谣的时间点、正面信息的感染率、正面信息对谣言传播者的影响力等。此外,SNPR模型本身具有抑制谣言传播的特性,对后期研究相关谣言传播模型及控制策略具有重要的指导意义。The rapid developlment of social networks makes it possible for people to spread rumors faster and wider than ever before, which affects people＇s normal life. Considering the phenomenon that government clarifies facts to refute the rumors through the traditional mainstream media and online media after the negative rumors occurred in the real life, the Susceptible-Negative-Positive-Removed （SNPR） model is firstly established by mean-field theory and used to describe the dynamic interaction of the rumors and positive information. Then, the model is simulated by the computer. Finally, the changes of various system parameters on the rumors spread effect is analyzed and compared. Simula- tion results show that there are three main factors influence the rumor spreading. Additionally, SNPR model itself contains the characteristic of inhibiting rumor spreading, and has important guiding significance for the later studies about rumor propagation model and the strategies of controlling rumors.

关 键 词：谣言传播 平均场理论 正面信息 传播模型 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学]