基于贝叶斯网络的应急物流风险预测与控制研究  

Research on Risk Prediction and Control of Emergency Logistics Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：李柯[1] 谭柱森[1] 唐小艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《物流科技》2017年第2期98-101,106,共5页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：基于因子分析确定影响应急物流风险的因素,从事前、事中、事后三个环节拓展指标体系,并建立应急物流风险的贝叶斯网络模型。采用历史数据进行实例分析,实现应急物流风险预测以及应急物流风险控制,预测出我国应急物流发生风险的概率为15%,事中处理阶段应急物流发生风险的可能性最大,反向分析出资源协调能力是应急物流风险控制的薄弱环节,是后期降低应急物流风险的关键。为提升应急物流能力、规避应急物流风险提供了新的思路。Based on factor analysis to determine the factors that affects the risk of emergency logistics, determine the index system in the three parts of advance warning, dealing with the emergency and post recovery. Then establish emergency logistics risk Bayesian network model. Using historical data to carry on the example analysis, realizes the emergency logistics risk forecasting and the emergency logistics risk controlling. The occurrence probability of emergency logistics risk in our country is 15%, and it most likely occurs in the disaster processing stage. We can conclude that resource coordination ability is tire weak link of emergency logistics risk control and the key to reduce the risk of emergency logistics from the reverse analysis, thus provided the new mentality for the promotion of emergency logistics ability, and to avoid the emergency logistics risk.

关 键 词：因子分析 贝叶斯网络 应急物流风险 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济]