中国制造业二氧化硫排放驱动因素分解研究  

The LMDI Approach Applied to SO_2 Emissions of Chinese Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：杨冕[1] 杨君甜 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学人口.资源与环境经济研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2017年第2期113-117,共5页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71303177;71503094);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(13YJC790179);中国博士后科学基金一般项目(2014M550848)

摘　　要：文章基于LMDI分解分析方法,将我国制造业二氧化硫排放的驱动因素分解为经济规模效应、产业结构效应、技术进步效应、能源结构效应和污染治理效应,并定量考察2002-2014年期间各种因素对其排放量的贡献程度。结果显示:在整个分析期内,规模效应是导致二氧化硫(SO_2)排放量增加的最重要因素;技术进步对SO_2减排的促进作用较为显著;能源结构变动的减排效应存在较大的波动性,其在"十二五"期间逐渐成为促进SO_2减排的主要动力来源;制造业行业结构调整的减排效应微乎其微。此外,环境规制作用所产生的污染治理效应在"十一五"期间逐步增强;但随着工程减排的增长空间日益缩小,其在"十二五"期间逐渐濒于消失。Using logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） method, this paper decomposes the driving factors of SO2 emissions in China＇ s manufacturing industry into economic scale effect, industrial structure effect, technological progress effect, energy structure effect and pollution control effect, and quantitatively investigates the contribution of various factors to the emissions from 2002 to 2014. The results indicate that scale effect is aeting as the dominant role in increasing SO2 emissions over the whole study period; Technical progress has a significant effect on SO： emissions reduction; There is a big fluctuation in the emissions reduction effect of energy structure change, which became the main driving force of SO： emissions reduction during the 12th Five-Year; The emissions reduction effect of structural adjustment of manufacturing industry is tiny. In addition, the effect of environmental regulation on pollution control gradually increased during the 1 hh Five-Year; However, its effect gradually disappeared during the 12th Five-Year with the reduction of the growing space for engineering emissions reduction.

关 键 词：二氧化硫排放 指数分解分析 驱动因素 制造业 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] F407