我国农产品出口贸易潜力研究  

The Empirical Research on the Potential of Chinese Agricultural Products Export Trade

作　　者：李文霞[1] 杨逢珉[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第3期134-137,共4页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(12BJY009)

摘　　要：文章运用空间计量经济方法,基于2015年我国对18个国家的农产品出口额,分析我国农产品出口的主要影响因素。结果显示,伴随经济全球化的发展,我国农产品对世界各国的出口额受各国GDP发展水平、共属APEC成员国的推动作用显著;而我国同各国之间的距离、各国农业增加值以及各国农业工人人均增加值同我国农产品的输出明显成反比;各国自由贸易协定的签署不利于我国农产品对其出口。Using a spatial econometric method, this paper relies on the data of Chinese agricultural export to 18 countries in 2015, in order to analyze the main influence on it. Result shows that along with the development of globalization, each country＇s GDP and the member of APEC has a significant improvement effect on the export of Chinese agricultural; Instead, the distance be- tween China and other countries and each countries＇ agricultural added value and agricultural value adder per worker have a neg- ative impact on the export of Chinese agricultural; Common borders show no sign of promoting China＇ s export of agricultural prod- ucts; Free trade agreement among the other countries will reduce the amount of China＇ s agricultural export to them.

关 键 词：空间计量模型 农产品出口 FTA 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]