区域自由贸易协定带来的影响——基于利益集团视角的理论与实证  

Impact of Regional Free Trade Agreements:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis from the Perspective of Interest Groups

作　　者：顾振华[1] 沈瑶[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海商学院商务经济学院,上海201400 [2]上海大学经济学院,上海200444

出　　处：《中国软科学》2017年第1期82-92,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"产业动态发展视角下贸易政策与产业政策的协调机制与中国实践"(71573171);上海市哲学社会科学青年项目"利益集团;贸易保护与产能过剩"(2016EJB001)

摘　　要：身处利益集团无处不在的今天,以TPP和"一带一路"为代表的区域自由贸易协定将会造成区域贸易集团鼎立,还是多边自由贸易?基于上述思考,本文构建了一个特定要素模型下的区域自由贸易协定分析框架,并利用30个主要贸易国家2007-2013年的数据进行了回答。结果表明:伴随区域自由贸易协定的签订,协定内国家将会降低他们对协定外国家的外部关税,协定参与国越多、越注重利益集团则下降幅度越大;与此同时,无论是协定内国家间的贸易流量,还是协定内国家与协定外国家间的贸易流量都会随着协议的签订而增加;另外,各国社会福利以及多边自由贸易化的可能性也会增加。Nowadays influence of interest groups is prevalent. Will the regional trade agreement represented by TPP and The Belt and Road make segmented trade situation or multilateral free trade？ In order to answer the above questions,the paper constructs theoretical analysis model of free trade agreement under specific factor and use 2004- 2013 data of 30 key economies to analyze. The results show that： First,With the signing of regional trade agreement,the external tariff between internal and external countries will reduce,the extent of which is magnified by number of participating and the weight of interest groups; Second,the external and internal trade flows will increase by signing; Finally,welfare and possibility of multilateral free trade will increase.

关 键 词：利益集团 区域自由贸易协定 世界贸易格局 多边自由贸易 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]