基于近似随进占优的概率区间数信息多属性决策方法  

Multi-attributes decision making method for interval number with probability distribution based on almost stochastic dominance

作　　者：乌云娜[1] 许浒[1] 张昊渤[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《计算机应用研究》2017年第3期714-717,共4页Application Research of Computers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71271085);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2015XS40)

摘　　要：针对传统区间数包含信息量太少,导致决策结果具有很大不确定性的问题,提出基于VIKOR的概率区间数多属性决策方法。该方法将概率信息引入区间数,定义概率区间数的运算规则和集结算子。基于近似随机占优理念,定义一种新的主客观结合的占优度,基于此确立了概率区间数的比较规则。最后将专家给出的概率区间数决策矩阵转换为占优度矩阵,并利用VIKOR方法对其求解。算例分析表明,该方法对概率分布的缓急变化具有很好的稳定性,而对于概率分布的偏态趋势变化具有敏感性,得到的决策结果在与传统方法一致的基础上更准确。The scarce information contained in interval number made decision making results uncertain. To solve this problem,this paper presented a VIKOR based multi-attributes decision making method. It introduced probabilistic information to traditional interval number,and proposed the definition,basic operations and aggregation operators of interval number with probability distribution. Based on the concept of almost stochastic dominance,it developed a new stochastic dominance degree definition to compare any two interval numbers with pro-bability distribution. Finally,it transformed the interval number with probability distribution decision matrix into stochastic dominance degree matrix,and employed VIKOR method to rank the alternatives. The numerical examples show that the new method has stability with the variation of Y-axis,but has sensitivity with the variation of X-axis. Moreover,the result derived by the method are consist with traditional method but more accurate.

关 键 词：概率区间数 近似随机占优 占优度 VIKOR 多属性决策 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]