滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性——以云南头寨沟为例  

Precipitation Temporal and Variability of Landslide Early Warning Research:A Case Study on Touzhai Gully in Yunnan Province

作　　者：徐则民[1] 梅雪峰[1,2] 王礼荣[3] 张有为[1] 曾强[1] 郭丽丽[3] Xu Zemin Mei Xuefeng Wang Lirong Zhang Youwei Zeng Qiang Guo Lili(Department of Civil Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technogogy, Kunming 650500, China Department of Geological Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China Department of Earth Science, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学土木系,昆明650500 [2]西南交通大学地质工程系,成都610031 [3]昆明理工大学地球科学系,昆明650093

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（地球科学版）》2017年第1期154-162,共9页Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1502232);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20135314110005)~~

摘　　要：目前已有大量不同尺度的临界降水标准对区域性滑坡进行预警,但仍存在预警空间外延性差、时间精度低、临界降水阈值不科学等问题。针对当前构建的临界降水阈值实现滑坡预警模型,以云南昭通盘河流域头寨沟为例,在研究区两个不同海拔高度位置分别布设气象站,进行了为期一年的降水观测,并比较了研究区两个不同位置的降水特征。结果表明:研究区降水梯度高达190 mm/hm,两个不同海拔位置降水变异性显著;降水持时是造成山上(2#站)与山下(1#站)次降水量差异的主要影响因素;发生小雨时2#站与1#站的降水差异性很小,但1#站发生中雨及以上的降水事件时,2#站的降水等级比1#站高1~2个等级,且有59.26%的概率会发生大雨或者暴雨;1#站为暴雨时,2#站100.00%概率为暴雨甚至大暴雨;2#站与1#站夜间降水均大于白昼,且强降水事件多发生于夜间。There is a large number of critical precipitation standard with different scales of regional landslide early warning,but the models are still exist some problems such as poor extensionality in warning space,low accuracy in warning time and unsuitable critical precipitation threshold.For establishing the landslide early warning model by the critical precipitation threshold,taken as anexample of Touzhai gully which is located in Pan River basin,Zhaotong,Yunnan Province,two weather stations in different altitude in the study area are set up respectively.The paper compared characteristics of precipitation of the two different locations based on one year observed data of precipitation.The precipitation of the two positions varies significantly with altitude as the precipitation gradient is up to190mm/hm.The difference of the precipitation duration is the main contribution factor of the difference of precipitation between 1# and 2# of this area.The precipitation difference between 1# and 2# are very small when it rains lightly,but it will have 1-2levels when it rains heavily in 2# and there is59.26% probability of heavily rainfall.When there is a rainstorm in 1#,the probability of heavy rain and even rainstorm in 2#is 100%.The precipitation at night is greater than during the day in no matter1# or 2#,most of heavy precipitation events occurred in the night.

关 键 词：降雨(降水) 滑坡 伽马分布 滑坡预警 降水的时空变异性 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]