基于缺水率模型的蓄水型水田灌区旱情预报  

Drought forecast of reservoir-type paddy field irrigation district based on water deficiency ratio model

作　　者：刘业伟[1,2] 雷声[1,2] 汪国斌[1,2] LIU Yewei LEI Sheng WANG Guobin(Jiangxi Provincial Institute of Water Sciences, Nanchang 330029, China Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Re- sources and Environment of Poyang Lake ,Nanchang 330029, China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水利科学研究院,江西南昌330029 [2]江西省鄱阳湖水资源与环境重点实验室,江西南昌330029

出　　处：《人民长江》2017年第3期39-43,共5页Yangtze River

摘　　要：频发的干旱灾害制约着我国社会经济的发展,其中农业干旱灾害的危害尤为明显。以江西省莲花县楼梯蹬水库灌区、罗卜冲水库灌区、河江水库灌区这3个以蓄水型水源为主的水田灌区为研究对象,在考虑水利工程对农业干旱影响的基础上,通过实地调查走访、理论联系实践的方式建立了各灌区的缺水率模型,以预报其农业旱情。结果表明,分析得出的水利用系数与实地调查结果基本吻合;且经对比计算,缺水率模型比连续无雨日数更适合评估水田灌区干旱程度,说明该模型可运用于以蓄水水源为主的水田灌区农业旱情的预测。The social and economic development of China is impeded by frequent drought disasters, especially the agricultural drought disaster. Taking four paddy field irrigation areas that are depend on water - storage sources, the Loutideng reservoir irri- gation area, Luobochong reservoir irrigation area and Hejiang reservoir irrigation area, Lianhua County Jiangxi Province, as the study object, through field investigation and linking theory with practice, a reasonable water deficiency ratio model was estab- lished to forecast the agricultural drought by considering the influence of water conservancy projects on agriculture drought. The calculated water utilization ratio is consistent with field survey. Compared with the method based on continuous days without rain, the water deficiency ratio model is more suitable for drought degree evaluation of the paddy field irrigation area. So the presented model can be applied to the drought forecast of paddy field irrigation district that uses storage water as a main source.

关 键 词：缺水率模型 水田灌区 率定验证 农业旱情预报 江西省 

分 类 号：S157[农业科学—土壤学]