近52年来北疆≥10℃初日时空变化特征及其对春玉米播期的影响  

Spatial-temporal variation of first ≥10℃ date in the past 52 years and its impact on the sowing date of spring maize in northern Xinjiang

作　　者：田彦君[1] 张山清[2] 徐文修[1] 只娟[3] TIAN Yan-jun ZHANG Shan-qing XU Wen-xiu ZHI Juan(College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830052, China Urumqi Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China College of Grassland and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi , Xinjiang 830052, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学农学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830001 [3]新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2017年第1期271-276,共6页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：新疆研究生科研创新项目基金(XJGRI2015089);国家自然科学基金(31260312)

摘　　要：利用1961—2012年北疆48个气象台站的气象资料,采用气候倾向率、t-检验、一元线性回归、IDW插值等方法分析了北疆以及各地州近52年≥10℃初日的变化及其对春玉米播期的影响。结果表明:(1)1961—2012年北疆平均≥10℃初日整体以-0.9 d·10a-1的倾向率呈提前趋势,20世纪80年代之前,以平均4.8 d·10a-1的倾向率呈推迟趋势,之后至今呈持续提前趋势,20世纪90年代提前趋势最为明显,倾向率达-13.5 d·10a-1。(2)北疆春玉米平均播期的提前受气候变暖显著影响,21世纪初北疆春玉米平均播期在3月26日—5月5日,且较20世纪60年代,平均播期最多提前达10~21 d,大部分县市提前1~9 d。随着气候持续变暖,北疆地区春玉米平均播期将进一步提前。Based on the data collected from 48 meteorological stations in the north area of Xinjiang from 1961 to2012,the paper analyzed the influence of the first date change of ≥10℃ in recent 52 years on sowing date of spring maize in northern Xinjiang by means of linear regressions,t-test,a linear regression equation and Inverse Distance Weighted of Arcgis 9. 3. The results showed that（ 1） the average first ≥10℃ date moved up on the whole with a trend rate of-0. 9 d·10a^-1from 1961 to 2012,specifically,the date was postponed with a trend rate of 4. 8 d·10a^-1before1980 s,and then continuous moved up. This advance trend was significantly obvious in 1990 s with the trend rate of-13. 5 d·10a^-1.（ 2） Sowing date of spring maize was advanced with the effect of climate warming,the average sowing date ranged from March 26 th to May 5th in Northern Xinjiang at the beginning of this century. Compared with 1960 s,the current sowing date was advanced 10 - 21 d at the most,and 1 - 9 d in most counties. With the climate warming continues,average sowing date of spring maize in Xinjiang northern region will be further advanced.

关 键 词：≥10℃初日 气候变化 北疆 春玉米 播期 

分 类 号：S162.53[农业科学—农业气象学]