不同种植结构条件下的农户利润风险分析——基于云南南部边境山区农户的调查  

Analysis on profit risk of rural households under different plantation structures: A case study of the mountainous area of the southern border of Yunnan, China

作　　者：冯璐[1,2] 吴春梅[3] 张焱[2] 李勃[2] 陶大云[4] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉400070 [2]云南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,云南昆明650200 [3]华中农业大学马克思主义学院,湖北武汉400070 [4]云南省农业科学院,云南昆明650200

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2017年第1期38-45,共8页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71403234)~~

摘　　要：随着经济体制的根本变革,我国农村经济自改革开放以来得到了快速发展,但是农业生产风险问题依然存在。其中,云南南部边境热带亚热带山区贫困问题突出,农作物种类繁多且利润风险不同。基于2015年云南南部边境山区366户农户的微观问卷调查数据,采用标准差和因子分析方法,分析云南南部边境山区不同种植结构农户的收入及作物投入产出,探讨不同种植结构条件下的利润风险。结果表明,云南南部边境山区种植结构呈现多样化发展形式,经济作物以甘蔗、香蕉、咖啡、茶叶为主,粮食作物以玉米、水稻、旱稻为主。在市场经济发展条件下,不同种植结构的利润风险差异显著。其中,单项农作物种植的利润风险普遍高于多项农作物种植,而多项农作物种植的种植结构中,经济作物种植面积占比高于50%的种植结构,其利润风险普遍低于经济作物种植面积占比低于50%的种植结构,但利润则正好相反。当前,云南南部边境山区的种植结构以经济作物种植面积占比低于50%为主,结构调整的方向是良性的但利润风险较高。因此,在保障粮食生产的基础上,需顺应云南市场经济发展的方向,依托农业企业引导农户结合当地实际发展经济作物,调整种植结构降低利润风险。With the fundamental changes in the economic system, China＇s rural economy has been rapidly developed since the economic reform and opening, but agricultural production risks remain. Moreover, the poverty problem is serious in the tropical and subtropical mountainous area of the southern border of Yunnan, China, with abundant agricultural crops and different profit risks. Based on questionnaire survey data of 366 rural households in 2015 in mountainous area of the southern border of Yunnan, China and applying the standard deviation and factor analysis methods, this paper examined the inputs and outputs of rural households and analyzed the profit risks under different plantation structures. Results indicated 1） the plantation structure was diversified with many cash crops including sugarcane, banana, coffee and tea, and grain food crops, including corn, paddy rice, and upland rice; and 2） the profit risk was significantly different under different plantation structures in current conditions of market economy. The profit risk of the single plantation was generally higher than the multiple plantation structure. The profit risk of cultivated area of over 50% of cash crops was generally lower than the cultivated area of less than 50% of cash crops. Currently the plantation structure in the region was mainly multiple plantation with less than 50% of cash crops and the orientation of adjustment of plantation structure was benign but the profit risk was comparatively higher. Therefore this paper suggests that the policy guidance should conform to the trend of the development of market economy in Yunnan, increasing the share of cash crop production to reduce the profit risk provided keeping food security for the region.

关 键 词：种植结构 利润风险 农户 山区 云南 

分 类 号：F304.1[经济管理—产业经济]