基于SLEUTH模型的酒嘉一体化城市扩展预测  

Integral urban spatial forecast of Jiuquan City and Jiayuguan City based on SLEUTH model

作　　者：蒋海波[1] 石培基[1] 李骞国 陈芸芬[1] JIANG Haibo SHI Peiji LI Qianguo CHEN Yunfen(College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Chin)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年第1期25-31,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271133)资助

摘　　要：文中运用SLEUTH城市扩展模型,借助GIS、RS技术,以酒(泉)嘉(峪关)地区1990、1996、2006、2014年Landsat TM/ETM+影像作为研究区基础数据来源,对酒泉市、嘉峪关市的城市空间扩展进行模拟与预测。文中主要设置了四种情景模式:自然发展趋势方案、环境友好型发展方案、紧凑型城市发展方案、规划引导发展方案。结果表明:在自然发展趋势方案下,城市的空间扩展完全是无序的、不科学的;在环境友好型发展方案下,城市空间扩展比较有序,对生态环境的破坏较小,有效的保护了城市内部及周围的生态绿地和耕地;在紧凑型城市发展方案下,城市空间扩展主要以边缘增长和建成区内部的土地集约、节约利用为主;在规划引导发展方案下,城市的发展主要体现了政府的意愿,一定程度上保护了城市的生态环境,同时也使城市周边的大量优质农田遭到了破坏。With the SLEUTH model, GIS and RS technology and the number sources of Landsat TM/ETM and re- mote sensing images from Jiu quan City and Jiayuguan City in 1990,1995,2006 and 2014 ,the urban spatial ex- pansion of the two cities were simulated and forecasted in the research. There are four models used in the research：natural development, environmentally friendly development, compact city development and planning development. The finds are as follow：under the natural development, the city development was in complete disorder; with the environmentally friendly development, the urban spatial expansion was more orderly with less environmental pollution, it protected the arable land and grass land inside and around the city efficiently;the land was used more efficiently and marginal land was taken into use in the compact city development and government played an important role in the planning of the city in the planning development model, it protected the urban environment but damaged the arable land around the city.

关 键 词：SLEUTH模型 城市扩展 情景模式 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]