雾霾天气影响北京入境旅游吗?——基于面板数据的实证检验  

Do fog and haze affect Beijing inbound tourism?——An empirical study based on Panel data

作　　者：唐承财[1,2] 马蕾[1] 宋昌耀[1] TANG Chengcai MA Lei SONG Changyao(School of Tourism Management, Beijing International Studies University, Beijing 100024, China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

机构地区：[1]北京第二外国语学院旅游管理学院,北京100024 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年第1期192-197,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：北京第二外国语学院校级科研基金资助一般项目(14Bb028);国家自然科学基金项目(41301161);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(13YJC630144);北京市哲学社会科学规划研究基地项目(13JDZHC007);北京市社科联青年社科人才项目(2013SKL054)资助

摘　　要：文中首先简述北京雾霾天气的成因、及其时空分布特点,分析近年来北京入境旅游发展特点。其次,在对北京雾霾天气及其治理、入境旅游业发展分析的基础上计算出北京市雾霾天气与入境旅游相关系数为-0.77。第三,以2004~2012年为时间序列选择北京8个主要客源国(地)构建面板数据采用计量经济学方法验证了雾霾天气对北京入境旅游的具体影响。结果表明:雾霾天气是显著影响北京市入境旅游规模变动的因素,在控制控制个体效应的情况下雾霾天气因素能够解释北京市入境旅游规模20%的变化;雾霾天气因素每变动1%,北京入境旅游相应地绝对地变动25.41万人次。雾霾天气对北京市入境旅游规模影响具有延期效应,并随时间推移影响效应呈现倒"U"型,滞后两年的大气污染对本年度入境旅游规模影响效果最大。This research analyzed the causes of the characteristics, and the characteristics of the inbound haze in Beijing, and its spatial and temporal distribution tourism development in Beijing in recent years. On the hasis of the analysis of Beijing haze weather with its governance and the development of inbound tourism industry, the correlation coefficient of the haze weather and the inbound tourism in Beijing was - 0.77 based on the research calculation. The study verified the specific impact of the haze weather on Beijing inbound tourism by adopting econometric methodology and constructing panel data from 8 major source countries （land） of Beijing from the time series of 2004 - 2012. The results show that the haze weather was a significant factor impacting of the scale of Beijing＇s inbound tourism, and under the condition of the control of individual effect, the change of the haze weather factors could explain 20% changes of the Beijing＇s inbound tourism scale： as every 1% variation of the haze weather factors, Beijing inbound tourism had an absolute change of 254100 people correspondingly. The impact of the haze weather on the scale of inbound tourism in Beijing had an extension effect and as the time lapse it was in inverted ＂U＂ type; and for the current inbound tourism in Beijing, the effect from the air pollution of the lagging two years was the most.

关 键 词：大气污染 入境旅游 北京 影响因素 客源国 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理] X51[经济管理—产业经济]