能源结构和碳排放约束下中国经济增长"尾效"研究  

Economic growth "drag" under the energy structure and carbon emission constraint in China

作　　者：米国芳[1,2] 长青[3] MI Guofang CHANG Qing(Statistics and Mathematics College, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China Research Base of Economy Sustainable Development in Inner Mongolia Region, Hohhot 010021, China School of Management, Inner Mongolia University of Technology, Hohhot 010051, China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古财经大学统计与数学学院,呼和浩特010070 [2]内蒙古地区经济可持续发展研究基地,呼和浩特010021 [3]内蒙古工业大学管理学院,呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年第2期50-55,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：内蒙古规划办哲学社会科学重点项目(2015JDA040);国家自然科学基金项目(71162015);内蒙古自治区高等学校哲学社会科学研究重大攻关项目(NJSG201203);内蒙古地区经济可持续发展研究基地资助

摘　　要：能源结构和碳排放是制约中国经济增长的主要因素,因此,必须对能源结构和碳排放约束下的中国经济增长发展水平进行研究。文中采用中国1990-2014年样本数据,在经典Romer"尾效"模型的基础上引入能源消费量和碳排放量,放宽"经济规模报酬不变"假定,对能源结构和碳排放同时约束下经济增长"尾效"值进行计算和分析。结果发现:受碳排放量和煤炭消费同时制约,中国经济增长速度每年将降低0.818%;受碳排放量和石油消费同时制约,中国经济增长速度每年将降低1.398%;受碳排放量和天然气同时制约,中国经济增长速度每年将降低1.808%。而且不管有无碳排放约束,能源消费结构的矛盾仍然是制约中国经济增长的主要因素,同时由于碳排放的限制,能源消费结构对于中国经济增长的制约将进一步加强。Energy structure and carbon emissions are the main factors for restricting economic growth of China. Therefore, we must study economic growth level under the restriction of the energy structure and carbon emissions in China. Based on the sample data from 1990 to 2014, energy consumption and carbon emissions were introduced on the basis of the classic Romer ＂drag＂ model, and the assumption of ＂economic scale constant return＂ was relaxed , the ＂drag＂ value of economic growth was calculated under the both restriction of the energy structure and carbon emissions. Results showed that na under both restriction of the coal and carbon economic growth rate would be reduced 0. 818% per year in Chiemissions, be reduced 1. 398% per year in China under both re-striction of the oil and carbon emissions, and be reduced 1. 808% per year in China under the both restriction of the gas and carbon emissions. The contradiction of energy consumption structure was still the main factor for restricting economic growth in China, with or without carbon emissions constraints. At the same time, the restriction of energy consumption structure on economic growth would be further strengthened on account of the limitation of carbon emissions.

关 键 词：经济增长"尾效" 碳排放量 能源结构 协整 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学]