基于回归模型预测的民勤绿洲地下水位动态驱动因子分析  

Analysis on the variation of groundwater level and its influence factors in Minqin Oasis based on the regression model

作　　者：杨怀德[1,2] 冯起[1] 郭小燕[1] 李勇进[3] 黄珊[1,2] 李会亚[1,2] YANG Huaide FENG Qi GUO Xiaoyan LI Yongjin HUANG Shan LI Huiya(Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Seienees, Lanzhou 730000, China University of Chinese Aeademy of Seienees, Beijing 100049, China Institute of Sociology and Demography, School of Philosophy and Sociology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]兰州大学哲学社会学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年第2期98-103,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国科学院创新国际团队项目(Y42AC71001)资助

摘　　要：基于民勤绿洲近15a的地下水位实测数据,系统分析了绿洲地下水位的年际变化动态,并通过SPSS分析软件对引起绿洲地下水位变动的8个潜在变化环境因子进行相关分析和多元回归分析,建立了地下水位动态初步评价的回归模型。结果表明:(1)绿洲地下水位动态表现为人类活动强烈干扰下的地下水位逐年下降和地下水位不均衡;(2)回归模型显示,地下水开采量、粮食作物种植面积和人口规模是影响民勤绿洲地下水动态变化的重要限制因子,且地下水开采量是绝对主导性因子。According to the fields data of Minqin Oasis over past 15 years, the inter -annual variation of the explore the mainly significant influence factors of groundwater level and even was applied to forecast the dynamics of groundwater level. The result showed that： （ 1 ） The tendency change of groundwater level in Minqin Oasis was decreased year by year and the regional groundwater level is not balanced due to the strong disturbance of human actives. （2） The regression model indicated that the amount of groundwater exploitation, grain crop acreage and population are the most Minqin Oasis, and the variable important restriction factors affecting the dynamic changes of groundwater level in of the amount of groundwater is the absolute dominant factor.

关 键 词：地下水位动态 影响因子 逐步回归分析 民勤绿洲 

分 类 号：P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]