不同耕作方式下气候条件对冬小麦籽粒产量的影响--基于面板分位数回归模型的分析  

Effects of Climatic Conditions on Grain Yield of Winter Wheat under Different Tillage Methods:Analysis on Panel Quantile Regression Model

作　　者：景小平[1,2,3] 唐卷[4,3] 陆见光 汤永禄[5] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院成都计算机应用研究所,四川成都610041 [2]成都工业学院,四川成都611730 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]广州大学计算机科学与教育软件学院,广东广州510006 [5]四川省农业科学院作物研究所,四川成都610066

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2017年第1期53-57,共5页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：四川省科技支撑计划项目“基于物联网技术的大面积植物生长指数联动数据挖掘的应用研究”(2014FZ0046)

摘　　要：为了明确不同耕作方式和气候条件对成都平原冬小麦产量的影响,本文运用2005-2011年冬小麦3种耕作方式(周年旋耕无秸秆还田CK,麦免稻旋WZRR,麦稻双免WZRZ)籽粒产量的面板数据,利用面板数据的固定效应模型和分位数回归模型,分析在不同耕作方式下冬小麦生育期气候因素对籽粒产量的影响作用。结果表明,3种耕作方式对籽粒产量的影响基本上一致。面板数据分位数回归动态表明:伴随籽粒产量水平的上升,拔节-抽穗期日平均温度的促进作用将不断增强,拔节-抽穗期的日最低温度,日照时数和抽穗-成熟期日照时数的正面影响均逐渐减弱;抽穗-成熟期日最高温度对籽粒产量的抑制作用随着产量水平的提升而不断加强。In order to determine the effects of different tillage methods and climatic conditions on the winter wheat yield in Chengdu plain, in this paper, based on the panel data for grain yield under three tillage methods （ rotary-tillage wheat ＋ rotary-tillage rice without any straw （CK） , no-tillage wheat with rice straw mulching ＋ rotary-tillage rice with no wheat straw （WZRR） and no-tillage wheat with rice straw mulching ＋ no-tillage rice with wheat straw mulching （WZRZ））from 2005 to 2011, the effects of climatic factors on wheat yield by the fixed effects model and quantile regression model of panel data were analyzed. The results showed that the effects of the three tillage methods on grain yield were essentially consistent. The results from panel data quantile regression dynamically indicated that with the increase of grain yield, the promoting effect of the daily average temperature at jointing-heading stage would be enhanced, and the positive effects of the daily minimum temperature and sunshine duration at jointing-heading stage and the sunshine duration at heading-maturity stage would be decreased gradually. What＇ s more, the inhibition effect of the daily maximum temperature at heading-maturity stage would be strengthened along with the increase of the level of grain yield.

关 键 词：小麦 耕作方式 气候条件 籽粒产量 面板数据分位数回归 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学]