决策偏好不确定条件下群体决策收敛一致性研究  

Research on Preference Convergence of Group Decision Making under the condition of Uncertainty Information

作　　者：杨雷[1] 赵九茹[2] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东广州510640 [2]广东外语外贸大学语言工程与计算实验室,广东广州510006

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2017年第1期96-102,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(14YJA630078);广东省教育厅青年创新人才类项目(2015KQNCX038)

摘　　要：决策个体之间交互影响是达成群体一致意见的重要因素。本文引入决策个体决策偏好的不确定性以及个体间不对称的影响权重,以此为基础建立群体决策动态观点演化模型,并进行matlab仿真。文中取决策个体的偏好不确定性为常数,作为决策个体对自身观点确定性的大致考量,并把群体中所有决策者的决策偏好不确定性分为相同和不相同两种情况来讨论。仿真实例证明:决策个体观点的不确定性是最终影响群体决策一致性的重要因素,当决策个体偏好不确定性较大时,决策群体更容易得到一致意见;当偏好不确定性较小时,决策群体难以达成一致意见,最终形成几个观点簇;在初始观点分布均匀的情况下,群体观点最终会演化出怎样的观点形态,是由群体中观点不确定性较小的群体所持有的观点决定的。研究内容有助于理解群体决策中一致观点的演化规律,能够为群体决策的引导策略提供参考和借鉴。Interaction between individual decision-making is an important factor to reach group viewpoint consis- tency. This paper introduces the concept of decision maker＇ s uncertainty viewpoint and weights influence func- tion. Using it as a base, we constructs a dynamic opinion evolution model and achieve a matlab simulation. This paper takes the uncertainty preferences for constant, and divides all the preference uncertainty of decision makers in the group decision into the same and different. The results of the simulation are ： uncertainty information of de- cision-making individuals is an important factor which affects the consistency of group decision making, when un- certainty preference is large, decision-making group is more likely to get viewpoint consistency; when the uncertainty preference is small, the decision-making group is difficult to come to an agreement, eventually form- ing a few view clusters; when the initial concept is distributed uniformly, idea generation will ultimately evolve into the form which is determined by the point of view held by the group whose viewpoint has smaller uncertainty. Research content helps to understand the evolution law of the consensus in the group decision and provides a reference for the guidance strategies of group decision-making.

关 键 词：偏好不确定 动态群体决策 观点演化 偏好收敛 观点一致性 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]