湖南省双季稻产量差时空分布特征  

Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Double Cropping Rice's Yield Gap in Hunan Province

作　　者：郭尔静 杨晓光[1] 王晓煜[1] 张天一[2] 黄晚华[3] 刘子琪[1,4] Tao Li GUO ErJing YANG XiaoGuang WANG XiaoYu ZHANG TianYi HUANG WanHua LIU ZiQi TAO Li(College of Environment and Resources, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China Hunan Meteorological Research Institute, Changsha 410118, China Meteorological Observatory of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062, China International Rice Research Institute, Manila DAPO Box 777, Philippine)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,中国北京100193 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所,中国北京100029 [3]湖南省气象科学研究所,中国长沙410007 [4]吉林省气象台,中国长春130062 [5]国际水稻研究所

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2017年第2期399-412,共14页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106020);十三五重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300101)

摘　　要：【目的】湖南省是中国主要的双季稻种植区之一,2014年湖南水稻总产量位居全国第一,在中国籼稻生产中占重要地位。研究湖南省双季稻区早稻和晚稻潜在产量特征,明确潜在产量、实际产量以及产量差时空分布特征。【方法】论文基于湖南省1981—2010年气候资料、水稻作物资料、土壤资料及产量统计资料,对ORYZA v3进行调参和验证,选用决定系数(R2)、D指标、均方根误差(RMSE)、归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)等评价指标来评价模型调参验证的结果。然后利用调参验证后的ORYZA v3模型并结合Arc GIS软件模拟分析湖南省双季稻的潜在产量时空分布特征,再结合双季稻实际产量,分析早稻和晚稻产量差绝对值及相对值过去30年的时间变化趋势及空间分布特征,明确研究区域双季稻的产量可提升空间。【结果】(1)调参验证后的ORYZA v3模型对研究区域早稻和晚稻的出苗—穗分化、出苗—开花、出苗—成熟的时间(天数)以及产量具有较好模拟效果,可用于湖南双季稻潜在产量模拟研究。(2)1981—2010年间湖南省早稻和晚稻潜在产量呈北高南低的空间分布特征,高值区为研究区域中部的武冈和邵阳等地,低值区为南部的丘陵地区;研究区域内东部地区双季稻潜在产量稳定性略高于西部地区,早稻潜在产量稳定性高于晚稻。研究时段内早稻和晚稻潜在产量随时间呈降低趋势,且晚稻潜在产量降低速率更快。(3)研究区域内双季稻产量差空间分布差异较大。研究区域内北部地区早稻和晚稻产量差最大,表明该地区双季稻产量有较大的可提升空间;西南部地区双季稻产量差小于北部地区,且早稻产量差最小而晚稻产量差相对较大,即西南部地区晚稻产量可提升空间大于早稻。研究时段内湖南省早稻和晚稻产量差均呈缩小趋势,且晚稻的产量差缩小速率大于早稻。【结论】�【Objective】 Hunan is one of the main regions of double cropping rice in China, and the total rice yield was the highest in the country in 2014. This study characterized the spatial and temporal variations of the potential and reported statistical yields as well as their gaps of the early and late rice in the double cropping rice areas of Hunan province. 【Method】The historical weather （1981-2010）, soil, crop growth and statistical yield data of Hunan province were collected and used to parameterize the rice model ORYZA v3 through the standardized calibration and validation processes. The performance of the model with parameters of rice cultivars was evaluated with satisfied decision coefficient （R2）, D-index, root mean square error （RMSE）, normalized root mean square error （NRMSE）, mean absolute error （MAE） between simulated and observed values. The verified model was used to compute the potential yields in each area in the period from 1981 to 2010, and then the temporal and spatial variations of the potential yields and their gaps （in both absolute and relative value） to actual yields were characterized by using ArcGIS. 【Result】The ORYZA v3 estimations highly agree with observations in the rice development phenology and yields for both of the early and late rice in Hunan province. The verified model could be used in the study of rice potential yields in Hunan province. The spatial distribution of potential yields of early and late rice were both higher in north area than in the south area. High potential yields appeared in Wugang and Shaoyang while low-yielding area was located in hilly south area. Within the study area, the inter-year variation of the potential yields of double cropping rice was slightly higher in the eastern region than that in the western region while the stability of the early rice was higher than that of the late rice. The potential yield of double cropping rice in Hunan province presented a decreasing tendency from north to south and also from 1981 to 201

关 键 词：湖南省 双季稻 潜在产量 产量差 时空分布特征 

分 类 号：S511.42[农业科学—作物学]