基于可拓学理论的新疆城市化与生态环境耦合评价研究  

A Study on Evaluation of Coupling between Urbanization and Eco-environment in Xinjiang Based on Extenics Theory

作　　者：李韧 聂春霞 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区发展与改革委员会经济研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2017年第1期112-117,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目(41661112)

摘　　要：通过建立城市化与生态环境评价指标体系和可拓学评价模型,评价了2000~2014年新疆城市化与生态环境耦合状况;通过构建灰色系统预测模型,预测了2015~2020年城市化与生态环境耦合趋势。分析得出:2000~2014年新疆城市化和生态环境耦合水平由中上升为高,但城市化和生态环境均为低水平。预计2015~2020年新疆城市化与生态环境耦合水平呈下降趋势,由高下降到中,其中,人口城市化和设施城市化水平保持为低水平;经济城市化和社会城市化水平由低上升到高。生态环境保持为低水平,其中,生态环境压力保持为低水平,生态环境状况由低上升到较低水平,生态环境保护由低上升为高水平。This paper set up evaluation indicator system and extenics evaluation model to evaluate the coupling degree between urbanization and eco-environment from 2000 to 2014 in Xinjiang, and constructed grey model to forecast the trend of coupling degree between urbanization and eco-environment from 2015 to 2020. It was concluded that the coupling degree between urbanization and eco-environment from 2000 to 2014 in Xinjiang increased from middle level to high level, but the levels of both urbanization and eco-environment were low. It was predicted that： during 2015-2020, the coupling level between urbanization and eco-environment in Xinjiang would show a decreasing trend （from high level to middle level） ; both the population urbanization and the facility urbanization would maintain at a low level, while both the economic urbanization and the social urbanization would rise from low level to high level; the eco-environment would keep at a low level, the pressure of eco-environment would keep at a low level, the status of eco-environment would be improved from low level to slightly low level, and the protection of eco-environment would be improved from low level to high level.

关 键 词：城市化 生态环境 耦合 可拓学评价 新疆 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]