中国农产品贸易隐含碳排放测度与时空分析  

Analysis on Calculation and Space-time of Embodied Carbon Emissions in China's Agricultural Trade

作　　者：丁玉梅[1,2] 廖程胜 吴贤荣[3] 田云[4] DING Yumei LIAO Chengsheng WU Xianrong TIAN Yun

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学循环经济研究中心/经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430068 [2]湖北工业大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430068 [3]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [4]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第1期44-54,共11页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"利益协同目标下农业科技共同体研发福利测度及其增进策略研究--以现代农业产业技术体系为例"(71503074);国家自然科学基金项目"气候框架公约下农业碳排放的增长机理及减排政策研究"(71273105)

摘　　要：利用MRIO模型对我国大陆地区31个省(市、区)在2002-2011年间的农产品贸易隐含碳排放进行了测算,结果发现:我国农产品出口、进口隐含碳排放量总体均处于增长态势,且后者增速较之前者更快;农产品净出口隐含碳排放逐年降低,自2003年开始成为碳排放污染转出国;我国农产品隐含碳排放与净出口隐含碳排放较大的省份大多位于东部地区,而中西部地区的隐含碳排放量相对较小。继而采用LMDI因素分解方法,进一步分解农产品出口隐含碳排放的影响因素有结构效应、技术效应和规模效应。最后提出优化农产品的进出口结构;全方位监管"隐性"碳排放的国际转移;设定区域农产品生产环境规制级差,实施区域碳转移补偿制度等政策建议。This paper uses multiregional input-output model to calculate the embodied carbon emissions of agricultural trade in China＇s 31provinces（municipalities and autonomous regions）between 2002 and 2011.The result shows that the embodied carbon emissions of agricultural exports and imports show the growing trend and the latter increases faster than the former.Net exports of embodied carbon emissions in agricultural product reduced year by year.Since 2003,China has become a transferred country in carbon transmission.The embodied carbon emission of agricultural products and provinces with more embodied carbon emissions in net agricultural export are mainly located in the eastern region,which is relatively small in central and western regions.Consequently,this paper further decomposes the influencing factors of embodied carbon emissions in agricultural export according to the LMDI factor decomposition method.Finally,this paper proposes several policy suggestions on how to optimize the structure of import and export of agricultural products,supervise international transfer of embodied carbon emission and define the level difference of envrionmental regulation of agricultural products in some certain areas.

关 键 词：农产品贸易 隐含碳排放 时空分析 多区域投入产出模型 规模效应 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]