基于贝叶斯网络的复杂装备维修质量评价模型  

Assessment model of complex equipment maintenance quality based on Bayesian network

作　　者：王永攀[1,2] 杨江平[1] 邓翔[1,3] 侯晓东[1] WANG Yongpan YANG Jiangping DENG Xiang HOU Xiaodong(Air Force Early Warning Academy, Wuhan 430019, China Unit 93502 of the PLA, Hohhot 010051 , China Air Force Equipment Department of Southern Theater Command, Guangzhou 510004, China)

机构地区：[1]空军预警学院 [2]中国人民解放军93502部队 [3]南部战区空军装备部

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2017年第3期569-576,共8页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家部委项目(KJ2014023200B11145);博士研究生专项课题(2014JY546)资助课题

摘　　要：针对当前装备维修质量评价忽视维修过程影响因素这一问题,将过程评价指标体系作为修后评价指标体系的先验知识,构建了一种基于贝叶斯网络的复杂装备维修质量评价模型。首先,建立了过程评价指标体系和修后评价指标体系,并对各项指标进行了简要分析。然后,建立了维修质量评价的贝叶斯网络模型,通过改进的模糊综合评价方法确定了根节点的先验概率,通过专家经验法确定了子节点的条件概率,并给出了模型的具体求解步骤。最后,通过算例仿真与分析对提出的方法进行了验证。结果表明,提出的方法能够在一定程度上解决复杂装备的维修质量评价问题,为完善复杂装备的维修质量评价理论提供了借鉴。Considering the problems that influence factors in the repair process are always ignored while conducting the maintenance quality assessment, an assessment model of complex equipment maintenance quality based on Bayesian network is built by taking the procedural indicator system as a prior knowledge of the repaired indicator system. Firstly, the procedural and repaired indicator systems are built and simple analysis of the indexes is given. Secondly, a maintenance quality assessment model based on Bayesian network is built, and the prior probability and conditional probability are also confirmed by the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the expert experience method respectively. Finally, simulations and analysis of one instance are conducted to verify the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method can solve the problem of maintenance quality assessment for complex electronic equipment at a certain extent, and it can also provide a reference to perfecting the maintenance quality assessment theory.

关 键 词：复杂装备 维修质量评价 贝叶斯网络 熵权 改进模糊综合评价 指标体系 

分 类 号：TN95[电子电信—信号与信息处理] N94[电子电信—信息与通信工程]