海平面上升叠加风暴潮对2050年中国海洋经济的影响研究  

The impact of sea-level rise superimposed storm surges on China's ocean economy in 2050

作　　者：张平[1,2] 孔昊[3,4] 王代锋[3] 彭本荣[3] ZHANG Ping KONG Hao WANG Dai-feng PENG Ben-rong(China Institute for Marine Affairs, Beijing 100161, China Collaborative Innovation Center for Territorial Sovereignty and Mari- time Right, Wuhan 430072, China Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Coast and Is- land Management Technology Study ,Xiamen 361013, China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局海洋发展战略研究所,北京100161 [2]国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心,湖北武汉430072 [3]厦门大学环境科学研究中心,福建厦门361102 [4]福建省海岛与海岸带管理技术研究重点实验室,福建厦门361013

出　　处：《海洋环境科学》2017年第1期129-135,共7页Marine Environmental Science

摘　　要：本研究基于Arc GIS的淹没模型与夜光遥感的GDP空间化处理结果,同时结合对2050年中国海洋经济增长预测,评估海平面上升叠加风暴潮三种情景对中国沿海各省市海洋经济的影响效应。模拟结果表明:海平面上升叠加风暴潮与天文潮的CHmax-0.3 m情景下全国海洋经济损失最大,2050年损失达到35444.59亿元,占海洋生产总值的9.39%;从2050年各省海洋经济损失比例来看(CHmax-0.3 m情景),辽宁省损失比例最大,其次为广东省,福建省和广西省;从各省海洋经济损失的绝对值来看,在海平面上升0.3 m的三种情景下,广东、辽宁、江苏、山东均为海洋经济损失绝对值最大的四个省份。To assess the impact of storm surges combined with sea level rise on Cbina＇s marine economy, this study utilizes the ArcGIS flood model, the results of the spatial visualized GDP mapped through luminous space remote sensing, and the forecast of the growth of China＇s marine economy by 2050. We assessed three scenarios of the impact of sea level rise combined with the effect of storm surge on the marine economies of China＇ s coastal provinces. The simula- tion results show：the scenario that sea level rise combined with storm surges and the CHmax-0. 3 m astronomical tide causes the biggest loss in 2050, which is 3. 544459 trillion yuan, accounting for 9.39% of the total output of the ma- rine economy of China ; under the CHmax-O. 3 m scenario,in 2050, Liaoning Province has the largest proportion of los- ses, followed by Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian ; under the three scenarios of 0. 3 m sea level rise, Guangdong, Liaon- ing, Jiangsu, Shandong are the four biggest provinces in terms of marine economic output losses.

关 键 词：海洋经济 海平面上升 风暴潮 气候变化 灾害损失 

分 类 号：X82[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X87